“For the South Island nor’westers from Australia and the sub-tropics kick in, boosting temperatures but making it windier for some too, especially inland,” WeatherWatch says.
This will continue through to Waitangi Day, with those hotter, windier northwesterlies moving further up the country, lifting temperatures in the upper South Island and eastern and northern North Island.
Perfect beach weather is on the cards for most on Waitangi Tuesday - sunny, light winds with sea breezes, 24C on the coastline, 27C inland.
The region with the hottest weather is expected to be Blenheim, reaching a high of 34C tomorrow.
Christchurch is forecast to climb to 31C while people in Dunedin and Queenstown can expect temperatures to hit highs of 26C and 23C respectively.
Aucklanders will enjoy highs of 27C with fine weather and light winds tomorrow, and this will continue through to Wednesday.
Niwa posted on X (Twitter) that it’s going to be a scorcher and a hot day for much of the eastern South Island.
“Our model is picking a top temp to be about a degree either side of 35°C,” it said.
To put this in perspective, Niwa said the average February maximum temperature for many eastern South Island areas ranges between 21C and 24C.
The hotter air will also bring high temperatures for Masterton, Gisborne and Hastings which are forecast to hit 30C.
But as much of the country basks in the sun with these hotter-than-average temperatures, a strong and moist northwest flow will bring an extended period of rain for the lower South Island.
A Heavy Rain Watch has been issued for Fiordland by MetService, which will remain in place until 2am Wednesday with periods of heavy rain forecast.
“Rainfall accumulations are expected to reach warning criteria, especially on Tuesday, and this watch is likely to be upgraded to a warning,” MetService says.
Elsewhere in the south, the high-pressure system is forecast to bring mostly sunny conditions through to Wednesday.
Those up in Waitangi can also expect the sun to be out for the annual commemorations, with temperatures forecast to reach highs of 24C.
Fire and Emergency New Zealand (Fenz) is urging people to be careful as soaring temperatures and gusty winds raise risk of fires to high and extreme danger levels in parts of the country.