Weather: Showers tipped for North Island ahead of 30C-plus highs as summer starts next week

Humid air is tipped to fuel showers in parts of the North Island at the start of the weekend before forecast 30C-plus highs for multiple days next week mark the beginning of summer.

Niwa meteorologist Seth Carrier said for the most part, the weather looks “pretty quiet” over the next few days, with the height of active weather being over the North Island today.

“We do have a weak front draped across the island that will be producing a few showers across the central and northern portions of the North Island,” Carrier said.

He said there would be a “little bit of shower activity” for Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay, up to Bay of Plenty and the Coromandel as well as Auckland and possibly parts of Northland.

“[It’s] certainly not a washout by any means, but I do think these areas will likely see at least a few showers during the course of the day.”

Seth has a look at your weekend weather, and it looks pretty good! 👌

☂️ The central and upper North Island will see a handful of showers both days, but it certainly won't be a washout.

🌤️ For the South Island, it looks like a dry weekend! pic.twitter.com/87SOJeQYa5

— NIWA Weather (@NiwaWeather) November 29, 2024

Carrier said it would be an “interesting situation” today, where eastern parts of the North Island would be cooler than western parts.

“[This] is the reverse of what we normally find, but that’s thanks to a bit of an easterly wind.”

Northland is tipped to be the warmest place in the North Island today, with a high of 24C. Auckland will reach 22C, slightly warmer than Hamilton and New Plymouth at 21C.

The east coast of the North Island will only see temperatures in the late 10s – a big drop from the sweltering 30C-plus heat it had on Thursday.

Meanwhile, Carrier said the weather was looking “really good” for the South Island to start the weekend.

“It looks like a completely dry Saturday and I think we’ll see plenty of sunshine as well,” he said.

Similar to the North Island, the South Island’s West Coast was tipped to be “a little bit warmer” than the east coast. A high of 16C is predicted for Christchurch, also just a couple of days after it surpassed 30C.

Mostly settled weather this weekend as high pressure moves in ⛅

However, the warm, humid air lingering around the upper half of the North Island looks to fuel some showers on Saturday.

The wet weather is less widespread on Sunday.

Check your local forecast at… pic.twitter.com/qlAh8pMlSz

— MetService (@MetService) November 29, 2024

MetService said conditions would be “mostly settled” this weekend as high-pressure moves in, with the wet weather less widespread on Sunday.

Summer is forecast to start with a sizzle next week, with more 30C days forecast – but a change to “La Nina-like” conditions is likely to spell muggy conditions later in the season.

“We’re expecting a very warm to hot week for a good chunk of the country next week,” Niwa forecaster Chris Brandolino said.

“And it looks like those eastern areas are going to see the best chances for the hot temperatures – we’re talking 30C-plus highs for multiple days next week.”

For the west of the country, however, Niwa’s just-issued seasonal climate outlook also carries some damper news, with a period of strong westerly winds over early to mid-December possibly bringing bouts of heavy rainfall.

“We’re talking the second week, maybe bleeding into the third week, of December, where western areas are going to be favoured to see some significant rainfall.”

Beyond that, though, the picture was predicted to change, with increased northeasterly winds likely to bring down rainmakers and humid conditions from around the new year.

“Then, over late January and into February, our expectation is that we’ll see those northeast flows increase in frequency.”

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