Weather: Messy forecast in lead-up to Easter weekend

Forecasters are expecting a mixed bag of weather this week – but aren’t yet ready to put all their eggs in one basket when it comes to picking our outlook for Easter. Photo / NZME

Forecasters are expecting a mixed bag of weather this week – but aren’t yet ready to put all their eggs in one basket when it comes to picking our outlook for Easter.

MetService is forecasting fronts and high-pressure to tag team in the week ahead, bringing changeable weather.

Today a cold, showery front moves north over the North Island while a ridge and fine conditions build over the South Island.

“Other than cooler early morning temperatures and patches of fog, tomorrow looks to be the most settled day of the week with only Fiordland and Stewart Island seeing any significant showers during the day,” MetService meteorologist April Clark said.

This week sees a seesaw from fine to showery weather as cold fronts give way to high pressure.

Temperatures also hop on for the ride, especially in eastern regions. Christchurch rises 6C from today's max temp to hit 22C on Wednesday before dropping back to 17C Thursday. pic.twitter.com/Ef7vV5iZYV

— MetService (@MetService) April 2, 2023

Another cold front was expected to affect the South Island on Wednesday and the lower North Island on Thursday, bringing more showers or rain, mainly to the west.

Northwest winds ahead of the front were also expected to lead to a short upward spike in temperatures for eastern coasts.

“The Christchurch daytime high forecast graphs will look a lot like a wave this week with the forecast daytime high of 22C on Wednesday dropping down to the mid-teens again on Thursday,” Clark said.

Later, on Friday, another ridge of high pressure brings settled weather once more, though a low to the north brought the possibility of rain to Northland.

🐧 Air masses from the Southern Ocean (🟣) will visit Aotearoa/New Zealand this week, bringing May-like temperatures...

Things will gradually warm up toward Easter as some warmer air strides eastward from Australia - but not quite warm enough to melt those chocolate eggs! 🍫🥚 pic.twitter.com/UJ3esa7hyK

— NIWA Weather (@NiwaWeather) April 2, 2023

As for the long weekend, MetService wasn’t yet ready to offer a clear forecast, with models still undecided on whether the late-week ridge, or low pressure in the north, would win out as the dominant driver.

“These systems interacting in the exact way that they do... there’s some complexity to that,” MetService meteorologist Andrew James said.

“It’s a case of keeping up to date with the forecasts, and we’ll have a much better idea in the next couple of days.”