Weather: Last days of school holidays warm, sunny before turning to rain

The last few days of the school holidays will be graced with fine, settled weather and temperatures reaching the low 20s in places before rain envelops the country again over the weekend.

MetService meteorologist Juliana Bergdolt told the Herald the forecast was “definitely better than the last few days”.

Parts of the North Island fell below freezing overnight on Tuesday with Waiouru on the central plateau experiencing -5.1C.

In the South, in Ashburton, Wednesday’s temperature was expected to jump about 20C from an overnight low of 4.2C. The Canterbury town can expect 24C today.

Our station in Ashburton is forecast to increase in temperature by ~20 degrees today.

As of 10:30am it has risen 9.5 degrees from it's overnight low of 4.2°C 👀 pic.twitter.com/9ZOHkEocET

— MetService (@MetService) October 3, 2023

In Auckland, meanwhile, Wednesday was set for a high of 16C with fine conditions. Thursday and Friday’s high is forecast at 18C with mainly fine weather with some cloud.

The city of sails’ weather will turn on Saturday, however, slightly dipping to a 19C high and occasional rain clearing in the evening. The temperature drops further on Sunday to 16C with showers throughout the day.

A high-pressure system to the northwest of New Zealand was responsible for the fine weather, MetService’s Bergdolt said.

“That’s slowly moving across the country over the next few days. But on Friday we have the next weather system pushing in from the west,” she said.

The low will push a rainband across the country, with the bottom of the South Island first to be hit Friday morning and the rain to sweep into the North Island on Saturday.

For the next few days further south, however, Wellington can expect a 17C high on Thursday with morning and evening clouds disrupting a mainly fine day. Friday will drop to 16C with occasional rain in the evening.

The capital’s Saturday will hit 16C and showers should ease throughout the day. The high of Sunday will plummet to 11C with showers clearing.

Further south, in Christchurch, Thursday will be a fine and sunny day with a high of 19C before maxing out to 23C on Friday. Saturday will bring occasional rain, clearing in the afternoon, and a high of 17C.

Chilly start for most 🥶

-5.2°C at our station in Waiouru!

Southland is the warmest region in NZ as of 7am but the heat moves to Canterbury as the day progresses.

Do you know why Invercargill is warmer than Whangārei this morning? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/FyeqRaBdL2

— MetService (@MetService) October 3, 2023

The garden city will drop to 12C on Sunday, with cloudy conditions clearing to fine. Dunedin will see 21C on Thursday, reaching 22C on Friday when showers develop in the evening. Saturday and Sunday will hit 13C and cloudy.

Clear skies in the North Island drove the big temperature differences overnight on Tuesday, with the island lacking a blanket of cloud to hold in the earth’s heat, MetService meteorologist Claire O’Connor said.

The coldest temperature registered at Auckland Airport was 6.1C, around 6am on Wednesday - well below the October average of 11C but still warmer than the airport’s lowest-ever October temperature of 2.4C, recorded in 1994.

The outskirts of Auckland saw even lower temperatures, with Whenuapai at 2.3C and Ardmore down to 1.9C.

Raphael Franks is an Auckland-based reporter who covers breaking news. He joined the Herald as a Te Rito cadet in 2022.