Weather forecast gives power industry hope

11.45am

The head of the government's programme to save power is taking some comfort from a weather prediction for the next few months by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa).

"The Niwa forecast called for a warmer winter. Forecast is forecast and we immediately got a cold snap up the South Island, but they also improved their outlook for winter rainfall," Winter Power Taskforce co-ordinator Patrick Strange told National Radio today.

"What they said the most probable was just below normal to normal (rainfall), which is a big improvement on what they had been saying.

"There's still a finite chance of being very dry so we still need those savings," he said.

Dr Strange said he expected to see within the next 10 days, possibly this week, the first announcement of incentive programmes to try to encourage savings up towards the sought after 10 per cent level.

"I think this is important to the small customer that they feel they or their community will get a direct reward for saving over and above their normal reduction in their power bill," Dr Strange said.

"There is this feeling that what can I do, it's only small, but if all of us listening just go and switch off a 100w bulb right now we'll detect a big shift in the consumption at the national control centre," he said.

Power savings improved during the past week from just above 3 per cent to 3.6 per cent by Friday and Saturday.

Some help also came from rain late last week that added water to South Island hydro lakes.

But today MetService spokesman Bob McDavitt said the chances of more rain over the lakes this week appeared slim.

Some troughs had gone through but now a high was following bringing settled weather with it, he said.

Meridian Energy spokesman Alan Seay said Lake Pukaki was now 41 per cent full, compared to the average of 54 per cent at this time of year.

Lake Tekapo was 69 per cent, compared to 81 per cent.

Those two were the key hydro lakes and had received significant water inflows last week, but nothing that had made a "material difference".

"We've got a week, week-and-a-half of extra time," he said.

New Zealand had only a limited hydro storage capacity and so relied on rainfall.

He also emphasised the current electricity position was as much a thermal power issue as it was a hydro one.

"It's a mistake to focus solely on hydro lakes," he said.

Meanwhile, the Government said yesterday emergency laws to allow hydro lakes to fall below legal levels would be considered if the prospect of power shortages worsened.

During the 1992 power crisis the then National government passed temporary laws to override water use consents.

A similar law this year was possible, but was well down the Government's list of options to reduce demand and increase supply, Energy Minister Pete Hodgson said.

"Cabinet has made no decision to legislate for lower minimum levels in hydro lakes, nor has it considered any formal proposal to do so," Mr Hodgson said.

Lake level laws were not a preferred tool to deal with looming power shortages as they were environmentally risky.

- NZPA