Weather: Rain for Auckland Anniversary Weekend, one year since floods, Tropical Cyclone Kirrily bares down

Heavy showers are forecast for Auckland Anniversary Weekend, and as the city prepares to acknowledge a year since its devastating and deadly floods, a tropical cyclone in Australia is threatening to further “indirectly influence” conditions here.

Tropical Cyclone Kirrily was expected to bear down on the northern Queensland coast tonight, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research said, and “its moisture will get siphoned into a low [pressure system] in the Tasman Sea, culminating in wet weather this weekend”.

The low-pressure system would hit New Zealand’s West Coast tomorrow, move up the country on Saturday, and then linger over the North Island on Sunday and Monday.

Holiday hotspots in Northland had rain forecast for later over the long weekend.

🌀 Although a tropical cyclone is forming some 3,500 km away from New Zealand in the Coral Sea, it will indirectly influence weekend weather here!

Its moisture (🟣) will get siphoned into a low in the Tasman Sea, culminating in wet weather this weekend...

It's all connected 👇 pic.twitter.com/nXGFY5dfYi

— NIWA Weather (@NiwaWeather) January 24, 2024

Whangārei should be mostly cloudy on Saturday with a high of 27C, while Sunday could see showers and rise to 28C, persistent in the evening. Monday should dip to 24C with a few showers. Kaitāia could see showers from Saturday onwards.

In the Coromandel, meanwhile, showers will dominate around Thames and Whitianga with the heaviest falls expected on Sunday. In Whitianga, the 26C Sunday could also see strong winds.

For those remaining at home in Auckland, Saturday would be partly cloudy with showers developing in the afternoon, MetService said. It should reach 25C before rising to 27C on Sunday.

MetService said heavy and persistent showers would plague the Super City on Sunday morning, while Monday should see a few showers and a fresh southwesterly wind. Monday had a forecast high of 24C.

🌧️💨An active front is on the move, sweeping north over southern and central New Zealand this Friday and Saturday

🟠🟡Watches and Warnings have been issued as it brings with it possible Heavy Rain in the west and Strong Winds in exposed areas pic.twitter.com/tR6VqYYlPm

— MetService (@MetService) January 24, 2024

Ahead of the weekend, Friday’s high was forecast to be 25C and the day should be mostly fine apart from some morning cloud.

The South Island could see a far wetter start to the weekend. MetService has issued 10 strong wind and heavy rain watches and warnings focused on Wellington, the West Coast, Otago and Canterbury headwaters, and Southland.

Up to 200mm of rain could fall about the ranges of the Westland District in 12 hours from 9pm Friday until Saturday. MetService warned rivers and streams there could rise rapidly, flooding and slips were possible, and driving conditions could be dangerous.

MetService meteorologist Alain Baillie said: “With the changeable weather this week it is important to keep an eye on the MetService warnings page for updates as the situation unfolds.”

Raphael Franks is an Auckland-based reporter who covers breaking news. He joined the Herald as a Te Rito cadet in 2022.