We can reduce youth offending. Here’s how – Russell Wills

Youth crime is a problem in New Zealand. Our numbers are significant, people and businesses are harmed, and the financial and human cost to society is high.

Youth crime is a problem in New Zealand. Our numbers are significant, people and businesses are harmed and the financial and human cost to society is high. The causes of youth crime are much the same as those underlying our high rates of adult crime, child abuse, mental ill-health, educational underachievement and low productivity.

What do we know about youth crime?

“Youth crime rates have been steadily falling since 2013.”

In 2023-24, police acted against 200 children aged 10-13 and 6700 young people aged 14-17. Since 2013, rates have fallen by nearly half, from 4.4% to 2.5%. Rates are higher for Māori. Reoffending rates have also fallen: of 16-year-olds in the Youth Court, about half reappear in adult courts within three years, down from three-quarters in 2013.

“Child abuse and neglect are strongly linked to youth offending. Nearly all young people who offend have experienced trauma.’

The vast majority of children who offend have been abused and/or neglected. Government data shows 93% of boys and 95% of girls referred to a Youth Justice Family Group Conference have records with Oranga Tamariki. If abused under 5, a child is six times more likely to offend than if not abused. Child abuse rates in New Zealand are high compared to other countries.

“Young people who offend often struggle with undiagnosed health conditions and mental health challenges, leaving their needs unmet.”

These children are well-known to services: children who offended both as children and young people (repeat offenders) had an average of 2.2 notifications to Oranga Tamariki before age 5, 3.8 notifications between ages 5 and 10, and 3.8 notifications between ages 14 and 17. Undiagnosed neurodiversities like ADHD, Foetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder and Intellectual Disability, as well as mental health issues like depression, are common.

“These young people are often excluded from education, face higher risks of suicide, and endure lifelong disadvantage.”

Of children excluded from school before age 14, nearly half (47%) offended as both children and adolescents compared with just 2% of those who had not been excluded. Repeatedly changing schools also increases the risk of offending — by 1.6 times for each additional school. Suicide and suicide attempts are also much more common among children who offend. Leaving school with no qualifications is the norm for children who have been in the care and protection system.

Children excluded from school before age 14 are far more likely to offend, writes Russell Willis.

“Most young offenders show clear early warning signs, but systemic failures mean their needs go unmet.”

Child and youth offending and reoffending rates are high but falling. Nearly all children who go on to offend show early warning signs: abuse, neglect, suspension from school, frequent school changes and struggling parents. Poor achievement in school, incarceration, mental illness and suicide are common when these children reach adulthood, yet referrals for assessment often aren’t made. In other words, all are known to services, but currently, we (and I include myself) aren’t making the difference we could. Yet referrals for assessment often aren’t made. Tamariki and rangatahi Māori are over-represented.

‘We spend lots on these families – why isn’t it working?'

The system I work in is struggling. Early intervention, prevention, and primary and community care services like general practice and Well Child Tamariki Ora are thinly stretched. Secondary care services like mine only reach the most severely affected – often too late. Delays matter because families disengage, and it’s harder to make a difference.

High workloads mean less time with each family. This matters because it takes time to build trust, understand complex needs and engage families in change.

What can we do when money’s tight?

We know what works from international and local research and from our own experience. Health services have a critical role alongside social services, police, courts and education. The conditions that lead to school failure, unemployment and crime are often preventable or treatable. What we don’t have is capacity.

We need time to know families, develop trust and engage them in change. Families who see us as culturally safe, supportive, available and non-judgmental nearly always respond. Early intervention is much more effective and cost-effective. New funding should prioritise families with family violence, criminal justice and complex needs – such as the first report to Oranga Tamariki or after multiple school changes.

We already have effective programmes like the Ministry of Education’s Intensive Wraparound Service, High and Complex Needs Unit, Gateway assessments, neurodevelopmental teams and Whānau Ora. Internationally developed programmes like Incredible Years and Multi-Systemic Therapy also show promise when delivered in culturally safe ways. These should be scaled up.

More services like these will reduce waiting times and improve access for families, leading to fewer children failing in education, becoming unemployed and committing crime. The savings in human potential and reduced court, Corrections and health costs could amount to hundreds of millions.

Finally, to ensure all children succeed, we must address the root causes of disadvantage: poverty, housing affordability, unemployment and racism. It wasn’t always this way, and it can be different.