Warning: Kiwis in Middle East should be on high alert

Islamic State group militants in Fallujah. File photo / AP

Kiwis in the Middle East should be on high alert to ensure they aren't soft targets for Islamic State militants following this week's troop deployment announcement, a defence analyst says.

John Key's decision to send 143 New Zealand troops to Iraq was not expected to raise the terror threat locally, or at Cricket World Cup matches.

But the Government was monitoring safety arrangements at Gallipoli centenary commemorations set for April 25 in Turkey.

Geopolitical analyst Paul G. Buchanan said New Zealand diplomats, students, aid workers and "particularly tourists" were at potentially greater risk now for kidnapping and attacks across the Middle East.

"Obviously we've raised our target profile by making this public announcement," he said.

Isis had branches in other nations including Egypt and the ability to strike people outside land it controlled in Iraq and Syria, Dr Buchanan said.

"A tourist bus full of Kiwis could be a very ripe target, because it's so soft, and people need to be aware of that.

They can strike in the Middle East with some degree of impunity and we simply need to be cognisant of that fact and take the due precautions."

But he said there was a low risk of domestic terrorism and he believed local spy agencies had a handle on possible Isis sympathisers.

"That's the good thing about being a small country - the number of potential radicals or jihadis is relatively reduced, so they can be monitored more easily."

Cricket World Cup's New Zealand head Therese Walsh said back-up plans meant the Iraq announcement would not change security issues for the tournament.

"The security planning that we've had in place for a couple of years, working with security agencies and New Zealand Police had a number of scenarios and contingencies in it," Ms Walsh said. "The threat level is still very low for New Zealand."

Dr Buchanan agreed the risk of lone wolf or other attacks on the tournament was extremely low.

The issue of deploying troops to ostensibly train the Iraqi army had divided Parliament and public opinion.

Dr Buchanan said it was highly likely Isis would release a video or other message directly threatening New Zealand within days or weeks.

"It's simply part of the tit-for-tat," he said. "Think of it from their perspective...they can see that we're sitting on the fence in terms of public opinion. It would be stupid of them not to issue threats and not to vow revenge. It's part of their playbook."

Meanwhile, Dr Buchanan said although there was some risk to Kiwis at Gallipoli commemorations, Turkey "will not allow" any violence at the site and had ruthless paramilitary forces and spy agencies watching would-be terrorists.

The Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (DPMC) was among the New Zealand agencies responsible for Gallipoli commemorations.

The DPMC said the Combined Threat Assessment Group diagnosed the domestic terrorism threat level and considered dangers to the safety and security of New Zealand and its people.

"Our domestic terrorism threat level does take into account world events as well as the domestic situation, and is under continuous review," the DPMC said.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade said 35 New Zealanders were registered on the SafeTravel site as being in Iraq, one in Syria and none in Libya, where Wellington woman Lynn Howie and her English friend Mark De Salis were murdered 13 months ago.

The Ministry said it routinely reviewed its travel advisories and "any change in the risk to New Zealanders overseas" would be reflected in those advisories.