Warm winter forecast but keep that brolly handy

Flooding hit Henley, near Dunedin, on Saturday afternoon. Photo / Otago Daily Times

The drought is over, and a warmer-than-average winter is on the way for most of the country, says the country's long-range forecaster.

Niwa's climate outlook for June, July and August says above-average temperatures are likely, with some short-term cold snaps and frosty periods.

But there is more rain on the way.

The MetService is predicting rain in most places tomorrow with heavy falls and possible thunderstorms in the northern half of the North Island.

Rain will ease to showers in the North Island on Wednesday ahead of a fine Thursday and Friday in northern parts of the island.

The forecasts are little consolation to South Islanders, as rain and snow continue to cause flooding and disruption.

Niwa climate forecaster Georgina Griffiths said soil moisture levels were already back to normal in most places after the summer drought.

After a very dry few months, May had been wetter than normal in many places.

She said farmers would still be feeling the long-term effects of the drought, as rain came too late to boost pasture growth on many farms.

The winter forecast was for normal rainfall over most of the country, but normal or below normal in the southwest of the North Island.

Ms Griffiths said that unlike last year's record-cold May, winter had been slow to get started this year.

Average temperatures were likely to remain warmer than normal in the North Island and most of the South Island until August.