Winter is coming. Autumn leaves fall in Selbourne St in Grey Lynn. Photo / Jason Oxenham
Winter is coming. Autumn leaves fall in Selbourne St in Grey Lynn. Photo / Jason Oxenham
Kiwis are basking in warmer than average temperatures but be warned: winter is just a southerly wind gust away.
That's according to forecaster WeatherWatch, which expects a brief cold snap to hit at the end of this weekend and dump snow on the South Island's mountain peaks.
"While we do have warmer than average days in New Zealand at the moment the cold is still brewing south of our nation - so it only takes a quick southerly change to feel the cold again," the forecaster said.
"We have a brief southerly change in the coming week for both NZ and Australia.
"It's short lived but enough to knock back temperatures significantly for at least a day."
In Queenstown for instance, the cold snap should send the mercury plummeting to a daytime high of 7C next Monday - that's lower than the overnight low of 8C expected in the alpine town tomorrow night.
The weather is pretty good right now, but how long will it last? 🌤️
We're watching the potential for a series of weather events between the 11th and 14th 🌧️ | 🌨️ | 🌬️
The warmer than average temperatures are expected to return in the middle of next week and continue on through May to July, fellow forecaster National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research said.
And that's the pattern the weather is expected to follow through the start of winter: warmer than average temperatures broken by intermittent cold snaps, meteorologist Chris Brandolini said.
"It doesn't mean there won't be cold snaps. There will be cold snaps and periods of chilly weather. There will probably be really sharp chilly periods where it gets really cold," he said.
"But they're not going to be long lasting."
He said while NIWA hadn't finalised its official winter forecast, the season would most likely be defined by warmer than average temperatures, in particular for the north and east of the North Island and the east of the South Island.
Temperatures could also be above average in the rest of the country, but there was less confidence about this.
Winter is coming. Autumn leaves fall in Selbourne St in Grey Lynn. Photo / Jason Oxenham
The winter was also expected to be drier than normal.
That could lead to more fogs and frosts as fine weather days turn to colder nights under cloudless skies, Brandolini said.
For outdoor lovers, this could all translate to more days of fine weather for mountain biking, kayaking and hiking.
For farmers, the drier than normal start to winter, is not immediately a problem as this is not the growing period.
However, it could become a big problem in spring, when irrigation starts, if the ground-water supplies have not been topped up by sufficient rainfall, Brandolini said.
"If there is going to be above-normal rainfall in one area, it will likely be in the West Coast," he said.
This would be caused by westerly winds coming off a warmer than normal Tasman Sea and hitting the mountain ranges on the West Coast.
While snowfall is hard to predict, Brandolini said the warm weather and lack of precipitation meant it wasn't likely to be a big start to the ski season, particularly for the North Island ski fields.
However, he said a lot of the ski season was about timing.
"You could have a really crap year overall, but if you happen to get a good dump of snow right before school holidays that can save your bacon," he said.
Tomorrow's forecast
Whangārei: Partly cloudy, a few showers possible. Northeasterlies. High 20C, Low 13C.
