Warm summer likely, but so is cyclone

New Zealand has a 70 per cent chance of a cyclone passing nearby before April, climate scientists say.

Dr Jim Salinger from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) said the risk would be greatest after the end of January, but it still fell within "normal" cyclone activity.

Holidaymakers are likely to enjoy a warmer -- but possibly wetter -- summer in some places, according to the seasonal climate outlook released today.

Average or above average air temperatures are expected in every region, while sea temperatures are likely to be above average throughout summer.

Rainfalls are likely to be normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, normal or below normal in the west and south of the South Island and "near normal" elsewhere.

Regional predictions:

* Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty: above average temperatures, normal or above normal rainfall.

* Central North Island, Taranaki, Wanganui, Manawatu and Wellington: above average temperatures, normal seasonal rainfall.

* Gisborne, Hawke's Bay Wairarapa: Above average temperatures, normal or above normal rainfall

* Nelson, Marlborough, Buller: Above average or average temperatures with normal rainfall.

* West Coast, Alps and Foothills, inland Otago, Southland: above average temperatures, normal or below normal rainfall and below normal river flows predicted.

* Coastal Canterbury, East Otago: above average summer temperatures, normal rainfall, below normal moisture levels and stream flows.

- NZPA