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Climate scientists are picking mixed blessings of a warm but wet summer for northern district holidaymakers, although southern farmers are likely to be left crying for rain.
Areas between Northland and the Bay of Plenty can expect summer temperatures at least as high as normal, and perhaps hotter, but the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research expects above-average rainfall in its climate outlook for December to February.
"So Central Otago or the West Coast in terms of dry conditions may be the place to go," principal scientist Jim Salinger suggested last night.
But what makes for happy camping spells potential misery for farmers, as Niwa predicts insufficient rainfall to alleviate dry conditions already oppressing much of the country.
"It certainly would be a worry for the farmers," Dr Salinger said, noting expressions of concern made to him this week in Gisborne by some who had gambled on wetter conditions to restock paddocks hit by a serious drought six months ago.
Dr Salinger said Poverty Bay was an example of a number of eastern and southern areas where the ground was already as dry is it got at the height of a normal summer, thanks to La Nina-induced weather patterns expected to persist into autumn.
Although most areas were expected to receive normal summer rainfall, he said that was unlikely to be enough to replenish already parched paddocks.
As for the lower South Island, including central Otago and the West Coast, rainfall was "very likely" to be lower than normal.
Neither will there be much chance of relief from a fresh breeze, as Niwa's national climate centre is expecting more anticyclones than usual over the South Island to produce lighter than normal winds.
