Wales to lead spirited British challenge

Stephen Jones of the Sunday Times plumps for Wales as the best World Cup bet among the British contingent.

It is no longer impossible to believe that a team from the British Isles will win the fourth Rugby World Cup. It is still unlikely, you wouldn't bother bunging your last dollar on it. But Wales have improved so rapidly that people are now complaining about aspects of the performance in victory over South Africa and France whereas a few months ago they would have celebrated a 3-0 victory over Bolivia.

That has been the impact of Graham Henry and of a newly-confident squad.

England, good old England, have shown new and welcome ruthlessness in crushing the United States and running up Twickenham's first-ever century, and this in a summer when centuries by England teams were thin on the ground.

Scotland, the reigning Five Nations champions, managed to lose to Argentina but were without both their play-makers in Gregor Townsend and John Leslie, and the fact that any team that relies so much on only two players must have weaknesses has not prevented the Scots from fancying the World Cup job a little too.

Ireland? Sorry, the usual brave try. Full stop.

So let us measure these teams against the three Downunder giants and the size of their tasks as set out by the draw. Of the three, I tend to go against general opinion in Europe and nominate Wales as the best bet, albeit with the fact that they most likely have to play the mighty Australians in a quarter-final.

The fact is that Wales have now become a tough side to meet, with scrummaging power, a remarkable line-out forward in Chris Wyatt, a bruising back row and the pocket battleship in the centre that is Scott Gibbs.

Where once their revival was based on adrenalin, now they look like a top-class rugby team in the making and the advantage of playing in the Millenium Stadium, a marvellous new edifice which has in itself given the nation a lift, must be worth eight points.

Of course there are weaknesses which will be ruthlessly exploited, but the Welsh have momentum.

England, strangely for a team so much in the public eye and which plays so many games, are something of an unknown quantity. They have centre Will Greenwood and prop Phil Vickery back in the side in two positions where they lacked real authority.

They have Lawrence Dallaglio, the former captain, back after his fine for bringing the game into disrepute after apparently admitting to serious drug offences. He and Martin Johnson, the captain, seem likely to be two of the great forwards of World Cup 1999 and the England back row of Dallaglio, Richard Hill and Neil Back, is unlikely to be bested.

Yet there were signs in their most recent game, against Canada, that their new and ground-breaking fast game, with backs and forwards interchanging, has become too incoherent and confusing. Certainly, the precocious Jonny Wilkinson, a young warrior at fly-half, struggled to impose himself.

They work ferociously hard, they are resoundingly committed and determined, but in the final analysis, do England really have the game-breakers, the star quality, to succeed?

Scotland have re-inforcements after what was (whisper it quietly) something of a freakish Five Nations triumph because key forwards in Doddie Weir at lock and Gordon Simpson at flanker are fit to resume, balancing the loss to injury of Eric Peters.

Leslie has been a massive influence in midfield and Jim Telfer's swansong as Scotland coach will be marked by the usual fervency. They have to handle the struggling Springboks in their pool but they must have a chance, even if the semi-finals is probably their best hope.

Yet the Brits are now fitter and faster and sharper, less inclined to believe in the fairytales of old that they could get by on footballing talent.

They are big. They are at home. They will not take kindly to the invaders this time, and the invaders will not leave with the Webb Ellis Cup without a thunderous battle or two.