Voters favour deal with Dunne

By JOHN ARMSTRONG political editor

Voters want Helen Clark to form a Government with Peter Dunne's United Future rather than the Greens.

A post-election Herald-DigiPoll survey has found that nearly 60 per cent of voters prefer United Future as the party to prop up the Labour Government, twice as many as those who favour a deal with the Greens.

Labour will need the support of one party or the other to secure a majority of votes in Parliament.

Labour's own voters are also more comfortable with United Future, whereas only a quarter want the Greens on board. This is of obvious concern to the Prime Minister.

The anti-Green sentiment may reflect public misgivings about the party's reliability, given that it has threatened to pull down the Labour-led Government if the moratorium on the commercial release of GM organisms is lifted next year.

With detailed negotiations under way over possible policy concessions and tradeoffs, the poll also gives Mr Dunne some voters' views to ponder.

Two-thirds of those who voted for his party think he should join a coalition with Labour rather than staying outside the Government and expecting to be consulted in return for supporting Labour in Parliament.

But more than half of Mr Dunne's supporters (55.3 per cent) do not think he should promise to rescue Labour in the event that the Greens carry out their GM ultimatum.

The poll of 500 voters highlights the volatility of the electorate.

Almost half of those questioned said they did not make up their minds on how they would vote until the last week of the election campaign.

More than a quarter waited until election day or the day before.

Reinforcing indications of a high level of tactical voting last Saturday, a third of those polled admitted that opinion poll results had influenced their party vote.

On election night, Labour had 52 seats plus the backing of two Progressive Coalition MPs, leaving it seven votes short of a majority in the 120-seat Parliament.

The Greens have eight seats; United Future has nine.

Helen Clark has not ruled out either party as a full coalition partner, although she has said she would prefer to run a minority government seeking support from other parties on crucial issues of confidence and money supply.

She would prefer a deal with both United Future and the Greens, giving her an alternative whenever she has any problem mustering the numbers from either one of them.

However, the poll shows that voters favour a majority coalition rather than the prospect of Labour and the Progressive Coalition leader, Jim Anderton, seeking support from other parties whenever they face a vital vote in the House.

Labour voters were evenly split on the question of whether Helen Clark should run a minority government or build a wider coalition.

Close to two-thirds of Labour voters thought the Greens should stay outside the Government but offer Labour support.

Just under half thought United Future should do the same, but more than 40 per cent would be happy with a Clark-Dunne coalition.

Green voters favour going into coalition with Labour by 54 per cent to 38 per cent, despite the reservations of their MPs on that issue.

Top-level negotiations to form a new government have adjourned while the Prime Minister takes a four-day skiing holiday.

Other leaders, exhausted from the election campaign, are also taking a long weekend.

Talks between officials are expected to continue, but party leaders will not return to the negotiating table until Tuesday.

* The poll was conducted between last Tuesday and Thursday. It has a margin of error of 4.4 per cent.

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