It's election eve, and the exclusive Herald Election Forecast has Winston Peters as the king- or queen-maker - as it has since we launched the model a month ago.
The model has been updated for the final time following the release last night of the final poll of the campaign.
The Newshub Reid Research poll, conducted between September 13 and 20, put National on 45.8 per cent with Labour on 37.3 per cent. The Green Party had moved from below the 5 per cent threshold to 7.1 per cent. New Zealand First was also on 7.1 per cent with the balance of power.
The Herald's Election Forecast crunches data from every major poll conducted in the past year and the results of every election since 1999. Check out the latest update in full, and find out how it was built here.
We can't guarantee it's going to predict exactly what will happen tomorrow, but statisticians believe that collecting more data, over a longer period, is more likely to create a true picture of where New Zealand's voting intentions lie.