Deputy Political Editor Thomas Coughlan interviews Americans on the streets of Philadelphia ahead of next week’s election. Video / NZ Herald
Opinion by Jamie Morton
Jamie Morton, a specialist in science and environmental reporting for New Zealand's Herald, has spent the last decade writing about everything from conservation and cosmology to climate change and COVID-19.
Surveys indicate three-quarters of Kiwis are worried at the prospect of a second Donald Trump term.
Experts say “election anxiety” is understandable – but it’s also important not to overdo it.
Jamie Morton is an award-winning science and environmental reporter. He joined the Herald in 2011 and writes about everything from conservation and climate change to natural hazards and new technology.
OPINION
With polling day for the US Presidential election now a mere 68 hours away,anxiety is peaking among those of us following along far too closely.
Here are some other numbers I seem to have baked into my brain.
Seven states hold the keys to reaching the 270 of 538 Electoral College votes required to win the presidency.
Three represent Kamala Harris’ clearest path to power: the “Blue Wall” of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.
Polling day for the US presidential election is now just a mere 68 hours away. Graphic / NZME
In all-important Pennsylvania, the Democrats have just half the 630,000 voter registrations they did in 2020. But according to some social media commentators, Harris might have achieved an early 400,000-vote “firewall” needed to hold off the Republicans come polling day.
At my time of writing, prediction markets are giving Donald Trump three-to-two odds of victory, but polls generally have the two candidates within a percentage point of each other.
Trump leads male voters by 54% to 45%, according to one of the latest polls, while Harris leads women voters by 55% to 43%.
Right now, figures like these don’t count for much. The race is a true toss-up and we’ll only find out the numbers that really matter after polls close next week and the last votes are tallied.
In the many hours I’ve spent poring over them – or downloading the endless takes of professional pundits like Nate Silver (whose gut picks a Trump win) – I could have been finishing half-read books, tackling new recipes or building Lego cities with my kids.
I live in New Plymouth, not New Hampshire.
The nearest US county seat is more than 7000km away. I may be weirdly interested in their voting patterns, but I’ll probably never visit Scranton, Atlanta or Grand Rapids.
A July Talbot Mills poll suggested 75% of Kiwis are concerned about another presidential term of Donald Trump, pictured here at last month's campaign rally in New York. Photo / Angela Weiss, AFP
Among the 5000 people who Professor Marc Wilson separately surveyed last year, two big worries stood out about the election: its potential implications for the global economy and our worsening climate crisis – especially for left-leaning respondents.
Others cited their unease at America’s polarised politics spilling over here, the Victoria University psychologist says.
So far, there is little indication of that: further Talbot Mills polling indicates around two in 10 Kiwis back Trump (55% favour Harris), while Wilson’s survey put local support for the former President at around 10%.
“For all that has changed over past decades, New Zealand is still a much more egalitarian society: as a result, we’re reacting to the stratification that American politics symbolises,” he says.
The University of Auckland’s Associate Professor Danny Osborne thinks our fascination with the election might be because the US is both the world’s “archetypal” representative democracy and a superpower with a heavyweight influence on the global order.
Despite those old-fashioned Kiwi values Wilson cites, what happens there matters here, whether we like it or not.
“We’ve also seen a lot of the rhetoric in the US around affirmative action and claims of reverse discrimination imported into our local politics.”
And for outsiders looking into the US, the Trump factor alone has been mystifying.
“There is a great deal of intrigue about how some 47% of US voters could support a convicted felon with a track record of lying,” Osborne says.
“It’s almost like watching a soap opera.”
As a native Californian with family back home and an academic interested in the intersection of politics and community psychology, Osborne’s not quite as removed from the drama as many of us get to be.
“I follow both US and New Zealand politics much more closely than is beneficial for my wellbeing,” he says.
“That said, the researcher side of me has, to a certain extent, been able to intellectualise a fair amount of what is happening.”
Election day in the US is less than three days away, with polling hinting at no clear winner. Photo / Matthew Hatcher, AFP
If we’re feeling that strongly about it, he answers, it might be because the race has been framed by both sides as “some kind of Manichaean doomsday event”.
“If Harris wins, it’s either a triumph of democracy or the end of a free and fair America; if Trump wins, it’s either a victory of God over Satan, or the beginning of a fascist autocracy,” he says.
“It’s hard not to worry that it’s all-or-nothing, even though the last US election was also all-or-nothing and the world didn’t end.”
Wilson says we can counter some of the uncertainty by remembering we’ve seen both candidates in government before.
But he adds: “Where I do think uncertainty is particularly relevant is really more about perceptions of Trump’s unpredictability.
“He’s done and said some really wacky stuff and it’s not unreasonable to wonder what this means when he’s got the nuclear red button under his finger.”
Victoria University political scientist, Associate Professor Lara Greaves, acknowledges concerns around this election’s outcome are valid, even if it’s hard to tell what it’ll mean for us here in New Zealand.
“The instability of another Trump presidency has been another concern commentators and experts have flagged, where a Harris presidency is more viewed as a continuation of business-as-usual politics,” Greaves says.
Osborne is a little more blunt about the potential implications.
“I really do think this is one of the, if not the, most important elections in our lifetime,” he says.
“The potential consequences are enormous, particularly given the state of affairs in Ukraine, the Middle East and Taiwan.”
Osborne admits he’s been feeling a lot of that uncertainty himself, especially when recalling the shock from Hillary Clinton’s surprise defeat in 2016.
“When I get too stressed about it, I try to remind myself that most voters only pay attention to a fraction of a per cent of what is actually going on,” he says.
“That sounds like it might lead to more stress, but it helps remind me [to] humanise those who are voting for candidates with whom I disagree.”
For the average American voter, he explains, elections are more about supporting their team than any one particular policy, or even candidate.
“I also run. A lot.”
What about the rest of us?
If you’re overwrought from election overload, Wilson’s simple advice is to cut back your media diet.
For one, he says, research shows that people who consume more news tend to perceive the world as a more dangerous place than folks who don’t.
“This research used to be about television news, but we now have access to algorithmically curated online and social media ‘news’, as well as American cable news networks like Fox or CNN,” Wilson says.
“What this means is that media consumers are likely getting a much more one-sided statement of facts and concerns that can only exacerbate the perception that the end of the world is coming, either way.”
“Doomscrolling” itself is enough to stir up unpleasant emotions like worry and anger, which we’re left having to manage for our wellbeing.
Victoria University Professor Marc Wilson is a psychologist. Photo / Mark Mitchell
But venting doesn’t work, he says, nor does trying to suppress these thoughts, even if it helps in the short term.
One step is distracting ourselves with what matters most to us, be it our hobbies, friends or families.
Another effective approach is “reappraisal”: or changing the way we think about a situation to alter its emotional impact on us.
“At some point, this election will be over, there will be a new President and we will be able to move on from the saturation of the election campaigns,” Wilson says.
“But if someone finds themselves so worried that it’s affecting how they get through their days, or their relationships, it’s past time to ask for help.”
Wilson doesn’t want to claim this election isn’t important for all of us.
There’s a reason we’re hearing reports of interference from foreign powers like Iran and Russia – or why climate scientists and security analysts alike have fretted over Trump being back in the Oval Office.
But it’s also easy for us to feel it’s more important than it actually is, Wilson says.
“Don’t watch Fox News, spend less time on social media full-stop, and you’ll find it really does affect your life less.”
An election that I can’t vote in, and have no control over, is now less than three days away.
But summer is 28 days away; Christmas is a little over 50.
Perhaps those are better numbers to dwell on.
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