KEY POINTS:
The pattern of "spring like" unsettled weather continues this weekend with yet another rain bearing front moving in. However unlike last time I'm down playing the effects of the rain for northern New Zealand.
That past front that moved in on Monday completely fizzled as it moved into Waikato, Auckland and Northland - and I think this one could do the same. As I write this blog on Thursday night our latest weather data says there's just a 10% chance of rain for the Bay of Islands, 30% for Whangarei, 40% for Auckland and 60% for Hamilton.
In New Plymouth it's 90% which indicates that Taranaki will probably be the cut off mark for significant rain - anywhere north of that will be probably receive only a brief period of showers.
This low could create some pretty heavy rain for the mountains and ranges in the west - places like Mt Taranaki, the Tararua Ranges, and most of the western and northern ranges of the South Island. If you're planning on tramping or mountain biking this weekend just keep an eye out for the latest rain warnings as I think some will be issued.
The low is similar in size to Monday's low but the north westerly ahead of it should be a little stronger. That means eastern areas of both islands will be hot on Saturday and then hot for the North Island's east coast on Sunday. Temperatures in the late 20s possibly 30 inland.
Farmers in western areas will certainly appreciate the rain and gardeners will enjoy it too. Rain is likely to make it into parched areas of Canterbury but like earlier in the week the direction of the low (coming in from the west) doesn't favour anything significant for the east.
Christmas Day weather update: The Weather Watch's Christmas Day forecast is starting to firm up as we get within a week of the big day. The forecast for December 25th is still generally sunny and dry with winds coming in from the east, south east and south for most places.
That means conditions may not be scorching hot in areas like Hawkes Bay, Gisborne, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin but could be a hot day in places like Auckland, Hamilton, Palmerston North, Nelson and the West Coast. Windy weather is likely in the far north and the far south as the Christmas Day high pressure system moves out into the Pacific. For a more detailed discussion on the New Zealand Christmas Day forecast check out the Weather Watch Centre's official Christmas Day forecast.
The beginning of next week sees a large high moving in from the Tasman Sea and that should 'cut off' any lows developing to the west of New Zealand for at least 5 days. Boxing Day doesn't look too bad either.
Philip Duncan
Pictured above: Dramatic storm clouds bring much needed rain to the Napier area as viewed from Te Mata Peak, Havelock North. Photo / Warren Buckland
For the latest weather news keep up to date with The Radio Network's new Weather Watch Centre or the NZ Herald weather section.
