United Future's battle for the centre ground

Helen Clark with United Future leader Peter Dunne, left, and Progressive leader Jim Anderton. Picture / Mark Mitchell

In the final part of our series on the state of the parties, political editor Audrey Young finds a streak of ruthlessness in the family values-centred United Future

Clever Helen Clark. She has convinced United Future and the Greens that each is her preferred coalition partner. And don't jump to conclusions just because Clark took a much-publicised and symbolic ride in her Prime Ministerial limo with Greens co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons just over a week ago. That should not be interpreted as favouritism.

Clark's head of staff, Heather Simpson, telephoned United Future leader Peter Dunne the same day to assure him Clark would also be equally amenable to some public duet with Dunne at some stage in the campaign.

And why wouldn't she? Dunne's United Future has been a relatively trouble-free and stable support partner for three years to the minority Labour-Progressive Government. And when they were a tiny bit troublesome, all Labour needed to do was go calling to the Greens or New Zealand First for the votes.

For a small and effortlessly achievable list of conditions (Families Commission, cannabis staying illegal, greater recognition for the victims of crime, more spent on roading) Dunne and his seven MPs had instant access to the Government and the ability to influence it occasionally.

Dunne also secured chairmanship of the foreign affairs and defence select committee and would be a credible contender as next Foreign Minister in coalition with Labour.

While that would be powerful incentive for anyone with ambition, Dunne is staying on the centrist course and doing nothing to suggest that his inclination lies with Labour.

Not all his MPs are following suit. Outspoken law and order spokesman Marc Alexander made it patently clear to a Grey Power meeting in Christchurch this week that his strong preference was to go with National. His "supply of confidence" in Labour had run out, he said.

Dunne has had an eventful pre-campaign period. He won a landmark judgment in the High Court with Progressive leader Jim Anderton, which forced TV3 to include them in its televised leaders' debate. He performed creditably in the debate.

This week he lost an MP , passionate Pastor Paul Adams, who was slighted at his list position of 10 and went independent in East Coast Bays - though many in the party would count that as much a blessing as a bother. Adams' demotion was to make way on the list for a second woman in the top 10, Auckland party activist Janet Tuck, and the leader of affiliate party Outdoor Recreation, Paul Check.

Outdoor Recreation came from nowhere to finish with 1.28 per cent of the vote at the last election, not much less than the Progressives and even if Check doesn't make it to Parliament, MP Larry Baldock has become an activist for outdoor policies in Parliament.

And yesterday Dunne accepted the formal endorsement of the rebel smokers' party, Win.

There is a risk that Dunne will be seen as opportunist and tacitly endorsing smoking. But it is more likely he will artfully exploit the synergies of his own party that rails against "political correctness" with the smoking brigade who rail against what they see as Government interference in people's choices.

This afternoon Dunne launches his party's campaign in Auckland when he is bound to repeat his graphic warnings about any large party having to deal with the "extremist" Greens or "egotistical" New Zealand First over United Future.

Dunne may sound like virtue personified when he talks about family values, apple pie, and income-splitting but there is a streak of ruthlessness that runs through him when he gets stuck into his foes.

He recently described New Zealand First leader Winston Peters as a "craven, unprincipled politician skulking around Parliament, doing everything but facing up like a man" to two Iraqis he had named in the House as being former henchmen to Saddam Hussein.

United Future issues almost as many press releases on the Greens as the Greens do, although for the opposite purpose, as recent release headlines show: "Greens show again why they can't be trusted", "Greens endanger New Zealand lives", "Greens' strike call another show of lunacy", "Greens demonstrate (again) their utter irrelevance", "The Greens oppose it, we must be right".

Dunne ruthlessly beat the Greens to a deal with Labour last election. After the first day of talks with Labour, Dunne explains in his book In the Centre of Things, he received a call from Greens co-leader Rod Donald who wanted to meet Dunne to make sure they weren't played off against each other in the talks. Dunne refused and got his deal.

Everyone will be wiser next time, no matter who is dealing with whom.

If Dunne and his team of now experienced MPs are in the game, they won't settle for as little as they did last time.

Peter Dunne has not stated his party's preference but by saying his party would begin with the largest party, has virtually removed the issue from contention.

Who knows, if he is clever enough, by the end of the election campaign he may have convinced both National and Labour they are each his preferred partner.