Underserved learners miss out on billions in lost wages, NZIER analysis finds

Mele Koula Lama Ahomana, 24, struggled in school after arriving from Tonga age 8. but is now thriving with a diploma in early childhood education. Photo / Supplied

It's well recognised that New Zealand's education system still fails too many people but new modelling shows just how much it can cost them.

Nearly 66,000 "underserved learners" could miss out on about $11 billion in wages over the next 30 years, analysis from the NZ Institute of Economic Research has found.

The lost wages worked out at more than $500,000 per person​ over their lifetime in today's money for those that miss out on level 4-6 qualifications, with Māori, Pasifika and disabled people hit the hardest.

Principal economist Michael Bealing looked at two groups - those who left school without achieving any NCEA levels at all, and those who left school with Level 3 and could be expected to go on to tertiary study, but didn't.

The report found lifting their educational outcomes to the national average for their cohort would lead to $10.9 billion extra wages over a 30-year period, adjusting for labour force participation.

In 2020, the employment rate for those with no qualification was 42 per cent, compared to those with NCEA Level 1-3 (64 per cent) and Level 4-6 (74 per cent). People in the latter group would earn an average $585,000 more than those with no qualification, even after adjusting for employment rates. A bachelor's degree would add another $567,000 on average.

The concept of underserved learners hinges on the fact that some groups have disproportionately worse outcomes than others. Māori and Pasifika people, for example, are twice as likely to leave school without NCEA Level 1 as the rest of the population; the same holds true for those with a disability compared to those without.

Inequitable economic outcomes flow on to numerous other areas, from social and cultural impacts to health impacts, Bealing said.

"My view is that if you're not seeking equitable education outcomes, I'm not sure you can ever hope to get equitable social outcomes."

Research had shown that education has the biggest wage growth impact on those who live with disadvantage, and it was intergenerational - mothers who got out of poverty also lifted their children out of poverty, he said.

"Education is so fundamentally important and probably the most important social investment we can have."

The report did not look at the potential cost of solutions, Bealing said. Instead it aimed to start a conversation on the price of failing to serve these learners.

But any solution would need to be targeted.

"One thing we know is that you can't get equal outcomes by using equal resources, because different people have different needs or are at different stages."

The NZIER research, commissioned and funded by UP Education, also proposed a number of solutions.

Those included tailored learning plans, more incentives for the tertiary sector to improve outcomes, recruiting more Maori, Pacific and disabled people into education, and bringing in accessibility legislation with clear standards. And the research stresses that those worst affected should be consulted.

'The higher the qualifications, the better the money'

Mele Koula Lama Ahomana (centre) of Pukekohe gained her diploma at the age of 24 after years of "zoning out" at school. Photo / Supplied

Mele Koula Lama Ahomana arrived in New Zealand aged 8, speaking only Tongan. By the time she got to Pukekohe High School, still struggling to understand her subjects but ashamed to ask for help, she "zoned out" of learning.

Ahomana left school to take up a scholarship for a sewing course, with the encouragement of a teacher who believed in her.

She gained Level 3 but, with her family struggling financially and her mother unwell, Ahomana didn't take it further, instead starting work at a rest home close to her family.

It wasn't until another former teacher persuaded her to think bigger that she decided to make a fresh start. With encouragement from her father-in-law, a teacher, she studied early childcare with NZMA.

Her parents cried tears of joy when she became one of the first in the family to graduate with a Level 5 tertiary diploma. Ahomana is now working in a daycare centre - a job she adores - and has long-term plans to get her doctorate in the field.

If she could talk to her 8-year-old self, she would say "Girl, you better get studying - don't give up. even if you don't have the support, just push yourself because it will benefit you to ... get a good job," she said. "Now I know - the higher the qualifications, the better the money."

Ronan McConney's schooling was also a struggle. McConney has cerebral palsy but was unable to get a teacher aide to support him while he was at Alfriston College as the school said it couldn't get funding.

"My teachers said I had a good brain and didn't need any extra help, but this totally ignored the physical challenges I was going through and its impact on my mental health," McConney wrote in a white paper released alongside the NZIER's economic analysis.

Ronan McConney, 19, reckons all schools need enough resourcing so they can supply teacher aides to anyone that needs one. Photo / Supplied

McConney said it was his own hard work and determination that got him to university, not any support from the school system.

Now 19, he's studying toward a health sciences degree majoring in paramedicine at AUT, after getting his Level 3 and 4 qualifications at NZMA. Both tertiary institutions had excellent support for people with disabilities, he wrote.

"I am a success story, but there will be many others like me who haven't been able to go to university because they didn't get the help they needed in secondary or primary school."

Both McConney and Ahomana told the Herald about several teachers who believed in them and pushed them to do better. They believed it was the education system itself that needed to improve, with more resources to help those who are underserved.

Ahomana wanted to see specialised support and English tutors to help Pasifika children who were arriving in New Zealand for the first time, while McConney wanted to see teacher aides for all learners who needed them.

He also wanted them to be more understanding of disability and provide support to develop confidence and prepare for the workforce.