Ukraine crisis: Kiwi in Kiev ready to pack up his life fast if war starts

A Kiwi expat in Ukraine's capital Kiev says he is preparing to leave at short notice if he has to.

Intelligence agencies in the United States believe a Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent.

But Michael Devoe said many people in Kiev seemed to think Russian military manoeuvres were just posturing.

"There's no rush on products from the shops, nobody's stacking up or panic buying," Devoe said. "There's no rush on banking."

He added: "I guess people are sort of used to it. Parts of Ukraine have already been occupied for eight years."

Devoe said the Ukrainian armed forces had improved dramatically since the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2014, when Russia occupied Crimea.

"If there's an incursion, there are risks for both sides."

Ukrainian soldiers in an armoured personnel carrier near a front-line position in the Luhansk area of eastern Ukraine. Photo / AP

Businessman Devoe told the Herald he was preparing to drive to Western Europe quickly if an invasion happened.

"It's a bit of an emotional rollercoaster. We're preparing."

But he said many Ukrainians had few options.

Devoe said he'd tried without luck to get an MIQ spot in New Zealand, where his mother was ill and his carbon trading company had business operations.

So he might drive to Italy or the Netherlands soon if he had to.

He said it was an understatement to say people in Kiev disliked Putin. But the two countries had many links.

"There are lots of family ties, friendship ties."

Devoe said one Kiwi expat in Ukraine had already left for Turkey.

"He packed up some bags and expects to stay away for a few weeks," Devoe said.

"None of us has been in this situation before, where you're looking at potentially having to run away from all your assets, your life basically."

Devoe has lived in Ukraine for about 18 years.

"It's pretty much home for me."

Russian President Vladimir Putin reacts during a joint press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron after talks in Moscow last week. Photo / AP

The Government has urged New Zealanders to leave Ukraine, citing ongoing tensions between the eastern European country and Russia.

Russia was likely to launch a limited "land grab" invasion and it was wise for Kiwis to get out now, defence analyst Dr Paul Buchanan said.

The 36th Parallel Assessments director said Russian leader Vladimir Putin did not want war, but did want the spoils of war.

"Putin would prefer not to invade Ukraine in order to get his demands met."

Buchanan said Putin wanted buffer states on Russia's western and southern flanks, and desired no Nato expansion in Ukraine or stationing of Nato troops in these nations.

Parts of Ukraine east of the Dnipro/Dnieper River had a large Russian population, and many of these residents would welcome an incursion from Putin's regime, Buchanan said.

"He can take most of eastern Ukraine without firing a shot ... It will allow him to consolidate the territory north of Crimea."

But Buchanan said many people in western Ukraine were very hostile to Putin.

"Western Ukraine will fight him in a guerilla war that will bog him down for years."

Buchanan said two signs could show an invasion was imminent.

One was the presence of armoured vehicles on highways near the border.

"Most heavy armour is brought in by trains, transferred to flatbed trucks, and then carried by trucks to the staging areas."

Another sign was the movement of water and fuel tankers to the frontline, and mixing them in with battle tank columns.

"What I think this will be is a limited land grab in the east."

Kiev is in the north-central part of the country, on the Dnipro River, which Buchanan said served as an unofficial divide between Ukraine's east and west.

"It will be folly for him to bomb the civilian population of Kiev."

Local residents train close to Kiev on January 30. Tensions have been building for weeks as Russia moves troops and military equipment to the border. Photo / AP

Buchanan said no other country was truly prepared to go to war for Ukraine.

He said the US would be reluctant to engage in armed conflict, partly due to the risks of an escalation to nuclear war.

Buchanan said New Zealand would likely continue making a few statements but he didn't expect the country to take any decisive action if Ukraine was invaded.

"We're going to talk about peace, love and dope and we're going to talk about the rules-based international order."

The NZ Government has called for global efforts to resolve the crisis diplomatically, and said the unprecedented build-up of Russian military forces on the border was concerning.

"Aotearoa New Zealand calls on Russia once more to take immediate steps to reduce tensions and the risk of a severe miscalculation," Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta said at the weekend.

The MIQ system had an emergency allocation process for limited situations which required urgent travel to New Zealand within the next 14 days.

Act deputy leader and foreign affairs spokeswoman Brooke van Velden yesterday said she asked Cabinet ministers about MIQ spots for Kiwi Ukrainians but received no response.

"If the Government is asking people in Ukraine to leave, they need to make sure that they have another country to come to for safe haven."