Two-horse race on Peters' turf

The experienced Winston Peters has made Tauranga his own for 21 years. Picture / Alan Gibson

That unconventional election billboard showing a formally dressed New Zealand First leader Winston Peters posing at the beach is as cryptic as the man himself.

Who's to say if the tide is ebbing on the MP for Tauranga - and on his party - or whether the consummate politician is preparing to ride another wave of popularity?

Mr Peters, who has not been dubbed the "comeback king" for nothing, rejects recent polls which have him trailing his National rival, local multi-millionaire Bob Clarkson.

Meanwhile, the chief electoral officer, David Henry, is investigating allegations that Mr Clarkson has overspent his campaign advertising budget, an offence which could cost him the seat should the polls prove correct.

Despite the mounting tension, Mr Peters' choice of hoarding for this election is the only real surprise so far from the Houdini of New Zealand politics. His tactics are tired and an increasing number of electors are wondering if he can pull anything out of the hat in time to work his magic again come September 17.

Some in Tauranga are saying never mind the "Man for a change" slogan - it's time to change the man.

The National Party is highly optimistic about reclaiming the pivotal seat Winston Peters has made his own for 21 years.

He first held Tauranga for National and then turned it into a New Zealand First fortress after setting up his own party 12 years ago. Under MMP, the volatile leader's strong personal following has enabled other New Zealand First candidates to piggyback into Parliament.

The fortress looked shaky in 1999, when National's Katherine O'Regan got within 63 votes of unseating Mr Peters after a turbulent introduction to coalition Government left his credibility in question.

But three years later he was back with a vengeance, his 10,362 majority decisively snatching Tauranga back from the marginal-seat category.

Even those who are not members of the Peters fan club have a grudging admiration for his survival skills.

This time it's a two-man contest, with wily Winston, 60, pitted against cheeky "Bob the builder" Clarkson, 66, the entrepreneur best known for the $17 million Baypark stadium and speedway he built for the city.

Superficially, the polished professional sitting MP is in sharp contrast to the high-profile developer who is more at home mucking in on his building sites.

One is a seasoned campaigner, the other a political novice; one the master of rhetoric, the other sometimes naive-sounding; one always immaculately turned out, the other more at ease with sleeves rolled up.

Both colourful characters who profess to want the best for Tauranga, they are not poles apart on major local issues. This is essentially a personality poll.

It has been difficult to compare public performance, with Mr Clarkson opting for cottage meetings rather than shared stages.

He admits he is a doer, not a debater. In response to Mr Peters' taunts of being scared to show his mettle, the National candidate says: "I don't do grandstanding".

The eight bit players can, at best, raise their share of party votes.

Along with the other greenhorns, Labour's Sally Barrett struggles to make a sound showing when measured on the public platform with the accomplished Mr Peters.

The calmly confident one-term United Future list MP Larry Baldock can hold his own, but he is realistic.

Mr Baldock has challenged Mr Clarkson and Ms Barrett to join him in committing to vote for whoever is most likely to beat Mr Peters "to avoid the vote-splitting in 1999 that enabled Winston to sneak back in".

Act has another tactic. Party leader Rodney Hide last week urged Act supporters to throw their electorate vote behind Mr Clarkson in a bid to oust Mr Peters.

His own candidate, Frances Denz, will continue to campaign for the party vote in the hope of saving Act from death.

Tauranga has changed vastly over the past 20 years, shrugging off its image as "God's waiting room" and becoming a vibrant, cosmopolitan city.

Winston Peters is the long-established brand that has distinguished the electorate from others and is in his element when cornered.

It remains to be seen whether his vote-pulling power will be strong enough in 2005.

THE CONTEST

Tauranga

Held by Winston Peters, New Zealand First (majority 2002: 10,362 )

Candidates

Winston Peters, New Zealand First.
Former teacher and lawyer, first entered Parliament as National MP for Hunua in 1978, lost seat in 1981 after one term, re-elected as Tauranga MP in 1984. Appointed Minister of Maori Affairs in 1990 National Government, dismissed from Cabinet in October 1991, resigned from Parliament in March 1993, won byelection in Tauranga the following month as an independent candidate. Formed NZ First Party in July 1993; party won two seats at the next election. After the first MMP election in 1996 the party had 17 MPs and was in coalition with National, Mr Peters serving as Deputy PM and Treasurer.

Bob Clarkson, National.
First-time political candidate, lived in Tauranga 15 years, land developer, self-made multi-millionaire, philanthropist.

Sally Barrett, Labour.
Political rookie selected in May to replace Margaret Wilson when she was appointed Speaker of the House, has taught English at Tauranga Girls' College for past six years.

Larry Baldock, United Future NZ.
One-term list MP, number five on the party list, long-time community service including 15 years in the Philippines with Youth with a Mission, former Tauranga City Councillor.

Frances Denz, Act NZ.
Niels Jensen, Destiny NZ.

Karandeep Singh Lall, Jim Anderton's Progressive Party.
Noel Peterson, Green Party.
Katherine Ransom, Democrats for Social Credit.
Russell Watkins, Libertarianz.