KEY POINTS:
Television bosses are betting New Zealanders will battle tougher economic times from the comfort of the couch - staying home to watch television rather than hitting the town.
But that may be a case of wishful thinking, according to Michael Carney, Planning and Insights director for media analysts The Media Counsel.
He says television channels have a big fight halting the audience shift to new media such as YouTube.
Overseas-sourced hit television shows are in the bag, with big deals in place with Hollywood studios.
But the future is not so certain for Kiwi shows.
Local programming for 2009 - like the new TV One comedy Diplomatic Immunity - has already been commissioned and much of it is being
currently made.
Jane Wrightson, chief executive of New Zealand On Air which funds the bulk of entertainment shows, says the first half of 2009 is "looking good".
But the second half of the year was less certain.
The worry was that television companies would come under advertising pressure and that might affect their willingness to fund local television shows, she said.
TVNZ chief executive Rick Ellis said: "Our local content slate remains strong ... so any local content impact is unlikely to materialise until 2010, and we have not reached that point."
This year has been a tough one for television, with a strike by Hollywood writers reducing the episodes for most hit American series - like Lost on TV2 and Prison Break on TV3.
TV3 programme director Kelly Martin said the Hollywood studios, such as its key supplier Fox, had increased the length of those sure-fire series to make up for the shortfall.
TVNZ has similar arrangements in place with the major studios, such as Granada in the UK with Coronation Street, Warner and Disney.
A spokeswoman for pay television giant Sky, which owns the free-to-air channel Prime, said people stayed at home during a recession rather than spending at restaurants, bars and on other entertainment.
But Steve Browning, general manager of the free-to-air platform Freeview - which is challenging Sky - said some Sky subscribers paying $100 a month for Sky might see the subscription as a cost-cutting option not a cost-saving one.
TVNZ head of programming Jane Wilson won applause from advertisers at a 2009 programming launch two weeks ago when she announced a line-up that was long on sure-fire hits but limited "risky", untried new shows from offshore. She told the Weekend Herald advertisers would be cautious next year, so TVNZ would be taking fewer risks on untried options.
"Clearly the economic recession and slowdown is impacting our advertisers' business, and marketing budgets are reducing or under pressure," Mr Ellis said.
