Turmoil overshadows Pacific's other pressing concerns

Secretary-General of the Pacific Islands Forum, Australian Greg Urwin, is seeking endorsement for another three-year term. Picture / Brett Phibbs

There's a certain Pacific-infused irony to the opening of the Pacific Islands Forum at the Sheraton Fiji Resort this Tuesday, which is unlikely to go unnoticed by Prime Minister Helen Clark - or to surprise her.

As they arrive, the region's leaders will be welcomed by a Guard of Honour mounted by the Republic of Fiji Military Forces.

Always impressive in their white sulus, the armed forces will be flexing their powerful muscles for purely decorative purposes.

But the military's participation in the formalities nevertheless sits in odd juxtaposition with its recent threats to force Fijian Prime Minister Laisenia Qarase, and forum chair, from office.

But it's broadly symbolic of what, in New Zealand eyes, is viewed as an unhealthy co-existence of legitimate and illegitimate or undemocratic activities in the Pacific's institutions.

It's an issue which has been a difficult but inevitable focus of successive Pacific forum meetings, and one which - because of recent events - will dominate much discussion at this one, the 37th.

Fiji military commander Voreque Bainimarama's repeated challenges to the Government's authority are a persistent problem from a regional security perspective and undermine attempts to embrace democracy.

But the now bitter rift between Australia and the leaders of the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea - sparked by blocked Australian attempts to extradite suspended Solomons Attorney-General Julian Moti from either country - is of more immediate concern.

Australia has defended its tough retaliatory stance, arguing it has the right to insist on the maintenance of the "rule of law" with countries it engages with.

The fallout has included the suspension of ministerial relations with PNG and threats by Solomons leader Manasseh Sogavare, this week downplayed by his foreign minister, to rescind laws allowing the presence of the regional assistance mission (Ramsi) in his country.

Forum meetings between foreign ministers and leaders of the four members of the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) - PNG, the Solomons, Vanuatu and Fiji - yesterday and today, will be critical to determining how the tension is dealt with.

There has been speculation there might be renewed attempts to oust the Secretary-General of the forum, Greg Urwin, who is seeking endorsement for another three-year term.

Urwin is an Australian who has worked in the Pacific most his life, is married to a Samoan, but whose initial appointment was controversial because he was the first non-Pacific forum head.

New Zealand, firmly backing Urwin, has been hoping the MSG chair, Fijian foreign minister Kaliopate Tavola, will work to help soothe tensions at the meeting and he signalled this week this was his intention. Helen Clark is expected to take advantage of New Zealand's reputation as a less abrasive negotiator to play some type of mediating role, despite deflecting those suggestions.

As the clouds gathered last week she changed to an earlier Monday flight out to Fiji to fit in more meetings with PNG Prime Minister Sir Michael Somare and Laisenia Qarase.

Others are scheduled with Urwin and United States Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill.

Publicly Clark is committing to reinforcing the need for Ramsi, a position she believes will be echoed by the majority of leaders.

Hill is expected to throw his heavyweight support behind the Australian and New Zealand Prime Ministers.

Ramsi is supported by a number of Pacific nations and in Clark's words "has played a critical role in stopping the Solomons falling into complete anarchy ... we don't want to see it falter at this point".

Any forum support for the abortion of such a significant mission would likely be widely interpreted as seriously undermining the member states' commitment to improving Pacific stability and governance and the solidarity - and therefore the power - of the forum itself.

Although something of a hardy forum veteran, Clark's frustration over the recent distractions was evident this week.

"What's clear is that the forum had a big and constructive agenda before the issues in the Solomons blew up and the Fiji coup issue blew up and the relationship between Australia and PNG blew up ... those are all unwelcome additions to what's before us."

On the formal agenda are plans to:

* Review the first year of operation of the Pacific Plan (designed to enhance economic growth and encourage sustainable development, good governance and security).

* Reform the structure of regional organisations, following a review.

* Change the post-forum dialogue with external partners - whose numbers have grown from the original five to 13, including the USA - to ensure they are more meaningful. Increased super-power interest in the Pacific has helped prise open pockets from outside the region, such as China, Japan and Taiwan.

Also set to be a key issue at the forum is the need for greater labour mobility for Pacific peoples, the growing seriousness of which was underlined in a recent World Bank study.

Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters recently labelled it a "huge issue" for the Pacific but one which was complex because of the potentially long-lasting consequences for all countries involved.

While pushing for greater access to both Australia and New Zealand, Pacific states have counterbalancing concerns to consider, including the asset-stripping of their skill bases.

And there are clearly domestic sensitivities in countries offering employment, including the potential for increasing overstayer problems and wage rate and equality issues.

Unskilled labour shortages in New Zealand dovetail with Pacific employment problems and some temporary work permits have already been made available for horticulture workers.

The Government is believed to have signed off on a package which will provide for more temporary permits, but it is not yet clear how substantial it is.

Clark will discuss the details at the forum, but may yet defer a formal announcement until after she returns. But it will serve as a chip in the complex bargaining with the leaders, particularly the Fijians who have long sought greater entry into New Zealand for their citizens.

And while Qarase may have trouble containing his own military, New Zealand will want the Melanesian chair of the forum onside.