Lawrence Yule and Anna Lorck agree the race in Tukituki is tight, but in true political fashion don't have to look too far to disagree.
Lawrence Yule and Anna Lorck agree the race in Tukituki is tight, but in true political fashion don't have to look too far to disagree.
With four days to go, there are at least two things that the National and Labour rivals agree on in the Tukituki electorate.
It's a tight race, and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is a big factor in 2020 being a close contest.
While the incumbent Tukituki National MP Lawrence Yuleacknowledges a closer race in 2020 against third-time Labour candidate Anna Lorck, he is still confident of winning this Saturday.
Lorck, on the other hand, is chasing victory in 2020. She says things are "exceptionally tighter" in 2020, based on the "really positive" conversations she has been having with voters.
Both cite the popularity of Labour and Ardern as a factor which is, as Yule says, "different to (the) last election."
Ardern's popularity through national crises and post-Covid lockdown recovery has surged during Labour's current term, with polling suggesting the party could govern alone after October 17.
Neither Tukituki candidate are citing local polls as factors in their own optimism - Lorck hasn't carried out any local polling and while Yule has, earlier in the campaign, he is keeping those cards close to his chest.
Still, Labour's popularity at a national level could provide the opportunity for Lorck to seize the traditionally blue seat.
"The recognition and support for Jacinda Ardern's [work] in Covid and keeping the country safe and putting our health first, is resonating right across the electorate,'' Lorck says.
Last election, Lorck closed the Labour-National candidate gap.
Yule picked up 18,280 votes in 2017 to Lorck's 15,467 - a healthy rise on her 12,047 votes in 2014.
Current MP Lawrence Yule was on the campaign trail in Frimley on Tuesday afternoon, five days out from the election. Photo / Supplied
Whilst the two leading candidates might agree on a few points, beyond their respective party lines, they also easily disagree.
Lorck, who is also an elected Hawke's Bay DHB member, says part of the reason she is a better choice for voters is she is a truly local candidate and lives in the electorate.
Yule doesn't.
It's not unknown for a local candidate or MP to not live locally. NZ First's Shane Jones landed a key role in the NZ First–Labour coalition after campaigning in 2017 as a Whangārei candidate, while living in a neighbouring electorate.
"It is time that we were represented by a local MP who lives in the electorate," says Lorck.
Yule describes Lorck's "local" argument as ''completely spurious''.
"I just think my opponent seeks to make some capital out of that, I think it's a ridiculous argument."
Yule's confidence around a victory on Saturday comes from what the former Hastings' mayor says is his connection with the Tukituki electorate for "nearly 20 years".
Yule says if he isn't in Parliament then he is in his office in the electorate, and people understand that.
This week, Yule has been out door-knocking, calling constituents and sign waving and says he is "humbled" by the level of support he has received.
Labour candidate Anna Lorck hit the streets of Havelock North to campaign on Tuesday afternoon, pictured here with Tukituki electorate voter Jayda Karauria. Photo / Supplied
Lorck has been "solidly" door-knocking since Covid alert level 1 and in the past four days has been doing "targeted door knocks" encouraging people to get out and vote early.
Calling and sign-waving have also been part of her campaign and she has Labour Minister Andrew Little in town this week to help on the ground campaigning.
Lorck's optimism comes not only from those "really positive" conversations, but the groundwork and experience of two previous campaigns, and in 2020, people telling her they'll be voting Labour for the first time.
Yule cites his recent experience in Wellington as cause for optimism.
"I've already managed to get a lot of commitments from National, more than an MP has for a long time, and I want to see those through.
"I want to make sure the hospital gets built, I want to make sure the roads get done and I want to make sure water storage gets done, and more recently I'm really keen to get Cranford [Hospice] built."
