Tui Cup: Anybody's game

Toss a coin or throw a dart.
That would be the most sensible advice to anybody aiming to tip the winners of tomorrow's semifinal matches in the Wairarapa-Bush Rugby Union's Tui Cup premier division competition.
While the form book would suggest that East Coast should beat Gladstone at Whareama and Carterton should beat Martinborough at Carterton it would be absolutely no surprise if the results went the other way.
This is simply because when you assess the possible strengths and weaknesses of the teams involved in each of the games they are so similar that the wisest course for any pundit would be to sit on the fence.
There seems little doubt, however, that the type of rugby played in the two semis will be as different as chalk and cheese.
East Coast and Gladstone both like to play the expansive style of rugby which allows them to fully use the attacking skills of their backs.
Carterton and Martinborough, on the other hand, won't exactly ignore the talents of those numbered from 9 to 15 but will be placing greater emphasis on dominating the forward exchanges.
Of the four semifinalists it can be argued with justification that East Coast have the most to lose.
They have yet to taste defeat on the club scene in 2011 and have already picked up a couple of trophies along the way. Yet come tomorrow, that record will count for nothing as far as the main championship is concerned.
Remarkably East Coast have five of their backs in the Wairarapa-Bush Heartland championship squad. Matt O'Connor, Zeb Aporo, Sam Mitchell, Jesse McGilvary and Nic Olson. All are likely to be influential here but perhaps the two key players will be Aporo who will take the pivotal role of first five-eighth and Olson who will be at fullback.
For Aporo it is a matter of making the judgement calls which allow his outsides the chance to stretch their legs on a regular basis while Olson has no peers in the local region as a counter attacker. Give him enough space to work up a full head of steam and the odds are he will make you pay.
The East Coast forwards mightn't have the same reputation as their backs but they are proficient ball winners. When it comes to sheer reliability the likes of Joe Feast, Karim Brown, Tereina McLean, Ross Thompson and Kane Nooroa can't be faulted.
Their Fijian connection has certainly had a positive effect on the Gladstone backs this season. Inia Katia, Michael Vuicikau and Joseva Naivalu are all potential match winners. Katia with his elusive running and instinctive flair is a veritable excitement machine when at halfback while the speedy Vuicikau and Naivalu generally take the more direct route in their attacking forays.
Up front Gladstone can confidently expect the usual whole-hearted efforts from players such as Bevan Morland, Joe Nuku, Lance Graves, Corey Reid and John Stevenson. Props are not usually regular try scorers but in Morland they have a front rower with the happy knack of getting himself into the right position at the right time when the goal-line beckons.
The talk through the early part of the 2011 season often centred around the struggles defending champions Carterton were having finding any sort of consistent form but once the main championship pool games commenced it was a very different story. Then they managed to string a series of wins together and now a repeat title success is very much a possibility.
Their opposition in the semis, Martinborough, only got into the top four when they scraped past Pioneer on countback but all season there has been a sense that the green-and-blacks would be there when the whips were cracking.
That they are well worthy of their place in the top four can't be questioned.
The Carterton forwards are a rugged lot with experienced campaigners Dylan Higgison, Blair Heming, John and Cory McFadzean, Tomasi Kedrabuka and Mike Wakefield all knowing what it takes to win matches of this importance.
Their confrontation with a Martinborough pack including such tough nuts as Wilbur Davies, Adam Marshall, Matt O'Neale and the Hawkins duo, Jared and Josh, should be an absolute cracker and it's fair to say that whichever team gains the edge up front will probably be playing in the grand final seven days down the track.
This is not to say though that the two backlines are devoid of attacking talent. Carterton have some handy performers there in the shape of Jared Nyssen, Jono Hurley, Deon Field and Lance Stevenson while Martinborough have a proven inside back combination of Wal Ireland and Greg Dennes and a dangerous counter attacker in Keiran Te Whare.
Both semifinals of the main championship will kick off at 2.30pm and, as mentioned previously, both should go right to the wire.
Also being played tomorrow are the semifinals of the premier division plate competition with Eketahuna at home to Greytown and Pioneer at home to Featherston. Providing all teams are at least near to full strength wins to Eketahuna and Pioneer seem the most likely outcome.
In all semifinals if the scores are level at fulltime two 10-minute periods of extra time will be played and if the scores are still tied the team scoring the most tries in the match will be declared the winners (including tries in extra time).
If the sides can't be separated on that basis either then the winner will be decided by (in order): The winner of any round robin matches played over the season between the two sides, the team having the higher points differential in all competition games up to the semifinals, the team scoring the most number of tries scored over the season including the semi-finals and by the toss of a coin, made at the end of the game in front of the referee.