Researchers argue a policy rethink is needed to get tougher on serial speeders – with an overhauled demerit system being one option. Photo / Sarah Ivey
Researchers argue a policy rethink is needed to get tougher on serial speeders – with an overhauled demerit system being one option. Photo / Sarah Ivey
A new analysis reveals drivers ticketed for speeding are nearly three times more likely to be involved in a crash, with that risk compounding as they rack up more fines.
NZ has one of the highest per-capita road tolls in the world, with speed a factor in around a third of fatal crashes.
Researchers argue a policy rethink is needed to get tougher on serial speeders – with an overhauled demerit system being one option.
Tougher fines and measures may be needed to crack down on serial speeders, say researchers who’ve revealed a troubling link between tickets and road crashes.
Their just-published analysis suggests drivers ticketed for speeding are nearly three times more likely to be in a crash – with that riskcompounding as they rack up more fines.
Speed was a contributing factor in around a third of the 341 fatal crashes recorded on our roads in 2023, when officers personally issued just over 400,000 speeding infringements.
Those fines range from $30 and 10 demerit points for travelling 10km/h over the speed limit, to $630 and 50 demerit points for 46km/m to 50km/h over the limit.
“Still, there’s a general appreciation that our fine regime might be set too low – and it hasn’t been changed for many years,” said Dr Darren Walton, director of the consultancy Crow’s Nest Research and adjunct associate professor at the University of Canterbury.
At the same time, the relationship between ticketing, driver behaviour and crash risk hasn’t been well-understood in New Zealand, which per capita has one of the highest road tolls in the world.
In their study, Walton and fellow researcher Dr Ross Hendy, of Melbourne’s Monash University, analysed driver data between 2017 and 2019.
After sorting drivers into groups based on their ticket count and their most excessive speeding, they found a strong link between high-speed violations and the likelihood of future crashes.
Those who piled up more than four fines over two years faced the steepest increase, with roughly one in 10 being involved in a crash where they were at fault.
That stood in stark contrast to the overall crash rate of 1.2% for all drivers over the period – suggesting those repeat offenders could be targeted with more interventions.
“We do have a demerit system that attempts to address the problem, but we could have a much more sophisticated approach.”
That could include a wider demerit system, he said, or an escalating fine regime where each subsequent ticket had a multiplier applied.
In Switzerland, for instance, fines were scaled to a driver’s wealth, making penalties for speeding far more substantial and, potentially, a greater deterrent.
“A $30 ticket can be less than a parking fine and that doesn’t seem right to me – so linking fines to incomes is likely to be more effective and equitable,” Walton said.
“However, it’s very hard to work out income, so adding to the burden on the courts to decide such issues is probably best reserved for extreme cases.”
In other insights, the research suggested being pulled over and given a ticket, rather than being snapped by a speed camera, was more likely to reduce risky driving behaviour.
New Zealand has one of the highest per-capita road tolls in the world. Photo / Auckland Rescue Helicopter Trust
That’s also been observed in Queensland, where officer-led enforcement of speeding has been shown to significantly cut crash rates, while camera-issued tickets have had a more limited effect.
One unexpected finding was the similarity in crash odds between drivers with a history of speeding and those with a blood-alcohol concentration at or just above the criminal threshold.
In fact, the data indicated a driver with just two speeding tickets had a comparable crash risk to a driver with a blood-alcohol level of 0.08 – a criminal offence in most jurisdictions.
That raised questions about the relative treatment of speeding and drunk driving in road safety policy, Walton said, as speeding offences typically faced lighter penalties.
Ultimately, he said the analysis couldn’t conclusively answer whether tougher fines would be enough to deter that hardcore group of speeders.
“If we changed the fines, would we find out that people who accumulated tickets reduce their crash risk?
“Or would a new fine system change the total profile of risk, reducing the overall likelihood of being in a crash?
“At least one advantage of undertaking this work is that it sets the benchmark for monitoring, whether future policy or regulatory changes work.”
Police and the Ministry of Transport referred Herald questions to Transport Minister Simeon Brown, who said the new findings showed why road policing was so important.
The Government’s Road Policing Investment Programme had targets to ensure police were focused on the most high-risk times, driver behaviours and locations, he said.
Transport Minister Simeon Brown. Photo / Sylvie Whinray
“I have made clear ... that the Government will instruct the Ministry of Transport to review penalties for traffic offences to ensure that they are fit for purpose and deterring dangerous behaviour.”
The study comes after the Government recently copped criticism for undoing blanket speed limit reductions introduced by Labour, while also raising the possibility of motorists travelling up to 120km/h on major motorways.
Among experts who’ve spoken out on those changes is the Ministry of Transport’s former chief science adviser, professor Simon Kingham, who welcomed the latest study.
“We just need to understand that speeding is a big part of crashes,” Kingham said, “and we’ve got to take speed limits seriously and not encourage people to drive fast”.
Jamie Morton is a specialist in science and environmental reporting. He joined the Herald in 2011 and writes about everything from conservation and climate change to natural hazards and new technology.
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