Tropical storm could hit NZ next week

File photo / NZ Herald

A tropical storm could hit New Zealand next week, a forecaster says.

Weatherwatch.co.nz said a tropical low forming 2000km north of New Zealand is set to track towards the North Island.

Head weather analyst Philip Duncan said the storm could strengthen into a tropical cyclone before its predicted arrival in New Zealand as early as Tuesday next week.

"At the very least we're expecting strong to gusty winds from the easterly quarter and dangerous rips and surf along the entire eastern coastline of the North Island - and at the worst we're looking at a direct hit from a nasty and slow moving tropical storm."

"We're not trying to alarm people but considering the three recent damaging lows which have brought wind damage, slips and flooding to the North Island we feel it's important to give northerners an early heads up."

Mr Duncan said one forecasting model projects the low moving over the North Island. Another had it tracking within 500kms of East Cape.

He said the storm had a 40 per cent chance of hitting New Zealand - up from 20 per cent on Monday.

"This far out we can't really have high confidence, especially when the models are still conflicted as to the exact path, but there is no harm in monitoring developments over the next few days."

If the storm hit New Zealand, it could arrive as early as Tuesday and linger as long as Good Friday, Mr Duncan said.

- HERALD ONLINE