The latest MetService update now shows the category 3 Cyclone Gabrielle, packed with 140km/h plus winds and a month’s worth of rain, will now hit from the top of the North Island to the top of the South for the first part of next week.
On Friday afternoon, a monster-wave alert was issued, saying 7m waves were expected to pound the southeast coast of the North Island on Tuesday night.
The University of Auckland says it will close campuses in the region as a precaution. “Exams and teaching will be held online all of next week,” the university said on social media.
‘Now is the time not to be complacent’
Speaking at an update today, Auckland Emergency Management’s Rachel Kelleher said it continues to work with partner agencies to ensure anything that can be done to prepare for the cyclone is being done.
Kelleher said as well as continuing to work on the current flood response, AEM is finalising a number of civil defence centres and evacuation shelters for people and their pets.
The locations will be available on the AEM website when they are confirmed.
She asked people to check on neighbours, especially the elderly and vulnerable.
She said AEM wanted to remind people the effect of this weather system may be different to late January’s flooding, and there may be an additional risk from storm surges.
She acknowledged the “immense efforts” of emergency response teams.
She said trees could block roads and people should think ahead about how they would cook food without power.
“Now is the time not to be complacent,” she said.
Kelleher said sandbagging can be used to block doorways, drains and other areas of properties for a short time. But other things include clearing gutters and drains.
Sandbags can be bought from hardware stores and there will be limited stocks available through the agency and at locations available on the AEM website.
Severe gales, swell warnings
MetService meteorologist Georgina Griffiths said the cyclone is currently “behaving”.
She said Monday and Tuesday were the two days Aucklanders in particular “should prepare for now”.
She said the worst-case scenario is the cyclone tracks “pretty close” to Auckland.
But even if it is further away, she said, we will still see impacts in Auckland due to existing vulnerabilities and its reach.
Further south, MetService warned the Wairarapa region that waves may rise to 4m on Tuesday morning, and up to 7m on Tuesday evening.
Griffiths said the worst weather for the North Island would be later Monday and Tuesday.
All of the northern region is at risk of severe gales on Tuesday, she said.
Given the saturated soils, she said, the winds were a problem for trees and powerlines.
She asked Aucklanders to tie down objects such as trampolines, and Monday and Tuesday are when Auckland can expect heavier rain.
MetService’s concern, she said, was exacerbating existing slips.
Meteorologists will not know until Sunday which areas in Auckland will be most affected by the rain, she said.
On the difference between the communication before this event and the one late last month, she said the cyclone is a “long way” away, and thunderstorms like the previous event were more difficult to forecast.
“The bigger the beast, the easier to forecast”.
Lastly, she told reporters, “heavy” swells would be coming on Monday and peaking on Tuesday.
If the cyclone comes west of the Coromandel, she said, a surge was expected on the eastern coastline.
Fire and Emergency urged people to spend time looking around their properties, looking at their roofs and cleaning their gutters.
Firefighters urge people to stay off the roads and not drive through flood waters because it is hard to judge the depth.
Their biggest request is that once the storm begins, people should call 111 only if a life is at risk.
AT: Safety number one priority
Auckland Transport executive general manager Stacey van der Putten said safety was AT’s number one priority.
At present 15 roads were closed across the region, she said.
In addition, and based on their knowledge, AT staff are publishing an extensive list of roads they know are vulnerable to flooding and strong winds.
She said the harbourmaster has also issued an alert to boaties in preparation for the cyclone.
Cyclone may cause new slips
Auckland Council’s building consents manager, Ian McCormick, said its geotechnical advice is the cyclone may cause new slips to fall or reactivate new slips.
He said people should stay out of buildings with red placards. At buildings with yellow placards, people should follow the advice on the placard and out of an abundance of caution stay out during the event.
He encouraged people with concerns about their houses to move out until the end of the event.
McCormick again said the calls were precautionary and not driven by specific concerns about certain properties.
In terms of danger signs, he said, new cracking of ground around the home, water strings and loss of water were signs to make arrangements to be somewhere else.
Acting District Commander Grant Tetzlaff of Auckland police advised people to stay off the road in the event of severe weather.
Tetzlaff said police are aware of discussions about burglaries in flood-damaged properties.
He said there have been some arrests for burglaries at flood-damaged and undamaged homes.
They have also become aware of anecdotal reports of people falsely representing themselves as council workers, and people should report this to the police if they feel unsafe.
Auckland schools may close
Secondary schools around Auckland, especially those affected by the Auckland Anniversary Weekend flooding, will this weekend be considering whether to close campuses on Monday or Tuesday because of the coming cyclone.
Auckland Secondary Schools Principals’ Association president and Orewa College principal Greg Pierce said his school was at sea level and prone to flooding so he and the board members would be keeping an eye on the weather forecast over the weekend.
They would make a call by Sunday evening about whether to close the campus and revert to online classes on Monday.
Kelleher said AEM is providing advice to schools in terms of the predicted event, and ultimately it will be up to the schools in terms of the decision they make on school closures.
Northland Civil Defence: Take latest warnings seriously
Northland Civil Defence controller Graeme MacDonald said with the forecast heavy rain coming on top of recent heavy rain, streams and rivers may rise rapidly and cause disruption in flood-prone areas.
”Surface flooding, slips and flood water are likely to close roads and disrupt travel with flooding in low-lying areas possible. The high forecast winds may also mean we see a number of trees down which can cause power outages and further hazards on the road.
”This morning we also met with all three of Northland’s district councils, local emergency services and other key stakeholders and we are all preparing to respond if need be.”
He once again urged people to take the latest warnings seriously.
Jim Lyle, the harbourmaster for the Northland Regional Council, warned that recreational vessels should avoid venturing out to sea from Sunday to Wednesday.
”All vessels at anchor should seek a sheltered position and prepare for heavy winds. If possible, seek a marina berth or secure berth alongside.
“Vessel owners should not leave their vessels unattended at anchor and should be prepared to run up the engines and motor against the wind if necessary to prevent dragging.”
This morning MetService said monster waves between 5 and 7 metres or more and severe gales were in store for parts of the North Island.
Damage caused by the gusts may be widespread, from Northland to Wellington, and could blow debris, down trees, damage buildings and cause power cuts.
The agency warns of storm surges from 0.4 to 0.5 metres and dangerous coastal inundation, particularly from Northland to the Bay of Plenty and east coast of the North Island.
A heavy rain watch is in place for 59 hours from 1am on Sunday to noon on Tuesday for Northland and Auckland including Great Barrier Island.
“Rainfall amounts may reach 200 to 300mm or more during this time.”
A heavy rain watch has also been issued for 53 hours for the Coromandel Peninsula from Sunday at 10am, a 43-hour warning for Gisborne from 3pm on Sunday and a 48-hour warning from 6am on Monday for Hawke’s Bay.
A strong wind watch is in place for 60 hours from noon on Sunday for Northland and Auckland north of Whangaparāoa and from 6pm that day for 54 hours a warning is in place for Auckland from Whangaparāoa southwards, and the Coromandel Peninsula.
“A significant period of severe gales and damaging winds is possible from Sunday through to Tuesday,” the update said.
The cyclone, tipped to be one of the worst storms this century, has now intensified into a “severe category 3” storm and tracking shows a slight shift east - but it makes “little” difference to the severe weather risk for New Zealand at this stage.
WeatherWatch issued new information about Cyclone Gabrielle early today, just before 7am, saying some of the most trusted global models it uses show a “very slight shift” eastwards.
“But [it] doesn’t change severe weather risks for NZ a great deal.”
The National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) said this updated tracking “would expose Northland, Coromandel, Bay of Plenty, Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay to the worst weather”.
People in the upper North Island are being warned to prepare for up to 300mm of rain and 150km/h winds as Cyclone Gabrielle looms, with authorities now extending the states of emergency in Auckland and Coromandel.
Slated to be one of the “most serious storms of the century” by forecasting agency WeatherWatch, Gabrielle has been upgraded to a category 2 tropical cyclone and was likely to increase to category 3 today, Niwa said.
Latest models show bad weather will start hitting on Sunday - but the worst of the cyclone is expected on Monday and Tuesday.
The cyclone itself is forecast to reach New Zealand landfall on Tuesday, with the latest tracking showing it will hit eastern parts of Northland, and then move towards Auckland and later Hawke’s Bay.
The Thames Coromandel District Council has said the impact of the cyclone on the Coromandel is likely to be similar to the 2018 storm and just below the intensity of Cyclone Bola in 1988.
