Trends offer little relief for National

By COLIN JAMES

If opinion polls are right, National is heading for disaster next Saturday.

There are some wisps of hope of a rise in the last week. The dive since May from an average of about 31 per cent (roughly its 1999 election score) to about 25 per cent appears to have halted in the past week, as our rolling average chart shows.

But that leaves precious little time to regain respectability. Even Labour's 1996 disaster score of 28 per cent would seem a relief.

National can draw no comfort from Labour's late recovery in 1996. Labour climbed in the polls during the campaign: from 18 per cent in a four-poll rolling average a month out to 27 per cent in election week. Its 28 per cent election score was in line with the poll momentum.

National, by contrast, would have to reverse the momentum of the past two months to get back to 30 per cent. Twice, at the end of May and in mid-June, our rolling average for National has briefly looked to be on the turn, only to resume the fall.

As at the end of this week National's three-poll average was 25 per cent, barely up on last week's 24.2 per cent. Such a score would take out some of the impressive new list candidates National has recruited.

If National held all of its electorate seats and picked up Coromandel, it would, on present poll figures, have 23 electorates and only eight list seats. That would deny list seats to educationalist Allan Peachey, former president Sue Wood and environmentalist Guy Salmon. Also out would be MPs Alec Neill, Belinda Vernon, Anne Tolley, Eric Roy, Arthur Anae, Marie Hasler and Annabel Young.

If National were to lose Hamilton East, as Labour expects, Mr Peachey would scrape in, because Tony Steel is not on the list.

The electorate seats highlight another National failing. Polls show its electorate seat support 5-7 per cent higher on average than its party vote support. As the chart shows, the small parties have been stealing its vital party vote support.

But there may be some pickings there for the big parties. The Greens' climb appears to have stalled - 9.8 per cent this week compared with 9.6 per cent last week. And, while New Zealand First is up from 6.7 per cent to 7.4 per cent and Act from 5.6 per cent to 6.5 per cent, these averages have been static during the week. So can Helen Clark get her majority? Labour's average this week has been 46.2 per cent - almost exactly the 46.6 per cent average for the whole time since the 1999 election.

Adding in Jim Anderton's one seat would net Helen Clark exactly the 59 seats she had in the last Parliament.

But a rescuer may lurk in the wings. Peter Dunne's micro-party, United Future, has climbed from an average of 0.23 per cent in mid-June to 0.97 per cent on this week's average - within striking distance of the 1.2 per cent he needs for a second seat and the potential to give a 59-seat Clark Government a majority.

The latest average is of three polls only (not four as in previous articles) because UMR-Insight has not polled since late June. It includes one each of the TV3 NFO, TV One Colmar Brunton and Herald-DigiPoll. One more each of the TV1, TV3 poll and Herald poll are due this coming week.

* ColinJames@synapsis.co.nz

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