Tough balancing act ahead for PM

Former National Prime Minister Jim Bolger predicts a tough road for New Zealand's next Prime Minister who will have to hold together a Government with the help of divergent minor parties.

National and Labour would go into a holding pattern until several thousand special votes had been counted and a result was completely clear, Mr Bolger said.

The difficulty of holding multiple parties together could mean any Government would be reluctant to take on controversial legislation and business could take longer to get through the House.

Neither he nor former Labour Prime Minister Mike Moore was certain who NZ First leader Winston Peters would agree to support in Government as they watched last night's nail-biting results come through.

Mr Peters reiterated he would not vote against the party with the most seats in Parliament.

And United Future leader Peter Dunne affirmed his support for the party with the most votes - both moves which could ensure they had the numbers to pass legislation in the House and maintain Government.

Mr Moore, who helped Mr Peters negotiate his coalition arrangement with National in 1996, said that could involve the New Zealand First leader talking with the party with the most votes at 10am and the next party a few hours later.

Nevertheless he said Mr Peters would be excruciatingly aware of the problems with that ill-fated coalition, which saw his party implode and the defection of several MPs.

He would be calculated and calm in these new negotiations.

"Winston was deeply burnt and deeply hurt ... I bet it plays on his mind now, to hold the show together."

Meanwhile, as Labour maintained a tiny lead over National last night, Mr Bolger said Labour would be wise to take note of the significant shift to the centre right this election. National almost doubled its support since 2002.

Its message of lower taxes had hit home with the public, he said, and Labour's finance spokesman Michael Cullen would be wise to take that on board.

- HERALD ON SUNDAY