Tonga sailing into uncharted waters

Tonga will need clear leadership to steer the country through its pressing political reforms, says a Pacific analyst.

Dr Malakai Koloamatangi, lecturer in Pacific politics at the University of Canterbury, says questions about democracy and the constitution mean there will be a situation of flux and uncertainty when the island nation's King dies. His comments come amid fears that the reign of ailing King Taufa'ahau Tupou IV is near an end.

The King was seriously ill in Auckland's Mercy Hospital yesterday, surrounded by close family members, and Tongans throughout the world have been asked to pray for him.

Dr Koloamatangi said that in the past year two national committees had been set up for political reform, one tasked by the Government to consult Tongans on what future system they would like.

Amendments to make the constitution more democratic had also been proposed by pro-democracy groups.

"There needs to be a clear helmsman," said Dr Koloamatangi. Calls for political reform in the monarchal society began emerging from commoners in the Tongan Parliament, where they had been under-represented, about 20 years ago.

The heir to the throne, Crown Prince Tupouto'a, was often regarded as being distant from the people. It was possible someone else could ascend the throne because he had no children, but that would require some constitutional issues to be resolved.

"There have been rumours swirling round for years that he might choose to abdicate, or take on the role for just a short time," Dr Koloamatangi said. The next in line would be his younger brother, Prince'Ulukalala Lavaka Ata, who has a son. He said King Tupou IV deserved credit for producing the conditions that made possible the calls for democratic reform.

After Prince Lavaka Ata resigned as Prime Minister of Tonga this year the King appointed the first commoner, Dr Fred Sevele, as Prime Minister. He shuffled the Cabinet by appointing other commoners as Government ministers.

"This is indeed remarkable in a land where five years ago no such development could have been envisaged or even hoped," said Dr Koloamatangi.

Tongan tradition portrayed the reigns of monarchs as a series of sunrises and sunsets so King Tupou IV's reign was setting, and it was timely to assess what his absence would mean.