Time running out for Bill English

By AUDREY YOUNG

Bill English makes a low-impact entrance to his first proper public campaign meeting this week.

He wanders happy and relaxed into the Senior Citizens Hall in Waikanae five minutes before the start.

You'd never guess his party could shed about 10 MPs after the election in nine days.

His wife, Mary, throws her arms around an old friend. English starts meeting and greeting.

It is a respectable turnout, mainly elderly, here to see what the newish National leader is made of.

English works his way along the front row. He stops and shakes hands with one well-dressed elderly chap in a grey suit and gaberdine coat.

English has no idea who he is.

Allan McCready is 86. When he became a National MP in 1960, English was not even born.

McCready was one of Muldoon's men in the late 70s, an era considered the party's heyday, when membership reached a reported 200,000. (Michelle Boag is delighted that it has grown to 26,000 under her presidency.)

McCready has seen them all - Hamilton, Holland, Holyoake, Marshall, Muldoon, McLay, Bolger, and Shipley. He settles in to listen to the new young hope.

English begins his speech by slamming into Prime Minister Helen Clark. New Zealand has seen a "dark side" to her, he says, referring to her attempts to muzzle him and the press over Paintergate and her anger over the Corngate allegations.

He is buoyed by a growing confidence with campaigning and, best of all, the Government suffered the worst week of its term last week.

There has been optimism in the National camp that, come the campaign, English would get the platform to lift his profile, that the rest of country would see why the caucus put its faith in him, that his intelligence and other qualities would shine through.

At the start of this week, there was an expectation that the payoff was coming, that party support would lift from its stalled 24 or 25 per cent.

English speaks exceptionally well, with no notes and few of the stilted slogans that litter most of his television debate - "we stand for aspiration, not envy", for example (whatever that is supposed to mean).

There is no sign of the campaign slogan, "Get the future you deserve", with its slightly sneering "serves you right" undertones.

His speech is about the issues: law and order, education, health, the Treaty of Waitangi, the economy, and Helen Clark's leadership.

He gets a laugh with his reference to Trevor Mallard's "Heineken diplomacy" with secondary teachers.

And he gets down to hair-bristling reality when he speaks of murdered jogger Margaret-Lynne Baxter, who was an old friend of his wife.

McCready and his wife, Grace, are very impressed with English. But McCready fears he may have the same disadvantage as Jack Marshall, who succeeded Keith Holyoake in 1972 and had not cemented his leadership before the campaign that year.

"It's very difficult to come into a campaign so late," McCready says.

English might pray that he is not afflicted with the Marshall syndrome. "Gentleman Jack" led the party for just two years.

The general audience reaction is reminiscent of Helen Clark's reception from 1993 to 1996, before she gained acceptance: he is much better in person than he is on television.

English is too smart to say he wished he had been elected leader earlier than nine months ago.

And Jenny Shipley is too gracious to say to her party (from Samoa, where she is said to be holidaying): "Well, you've got the future you deserve - serves you right."

The party was dealt a further blow by yesterday's Herald-DigiPoll survey, which moved National's support from its stalled position, not upwards as expected, but down to 23 per cent.

Curiously, English's personal rating is rising at the same time as his party is falling. But that cannot disguise the more important change: the Government had one of its worst weeks in memory - and National dropped.

The poll will be more of a blow because campaigning has given English confidence. He is boosted daily by people - especially children - who see him as a sporting hero as much as a political hero.

Adding insult to injury this week, he is being outshone by one of Parliament's worthy plodders, Peter Dunne. The leader of National's 39 MPs is suddenly not as relevant as a man who leads only his own shadow in Parliament.

English cannot afford to compete with cunning old dogs like Winston Peters, who can lie low for 2 1/2 years, then double his support in three weeks with three fingers and a children's chant: Can we fix it? Yes, we can.

If there is depression in the National camp, English is not letting it show. That would only compound the problem. Optimism still reigns supreme.

English says National will be rewarded if he slogs away at "the issues" over the next 10 days.

"I know we are going to do a lot better than we are polling," he told the Herald.

"I'm picking up a lot of support about the issues concerning people. And as they make the decisions, they will come with us. They just haven't had to make a decision."

Try suggesting that this campaign is good practice for 2005 and he bites. "No. Politicians are never practising."

He talks about the need for a strong National Party. He hasn't - and won't - talk about having a strong Opposition, but no one is pretending National can win.

That is one of the problems. English appears to be suffering from a "wasted-vote" phenomenon, usually associated with minor parties.

His own voters perceive that National cannot win and are shopping around for those that might be in Government so their vote won't be wasted. DigiPoll analysis shows that 15.3 per cent of those who say they voted National last election are voting Labour this time.

The party's armchair critics are making their judgments on the campaign already.

No focus. Not sharp enough. Not hungry enough. Not good enough advertising. Not forceful enough. Not clear enough. Not different enough on policy.

Policy is a problem for National. Key emotional issues such as law and order and "the treaty industry" have already been claimed by Act and New Zealand First.

Attacks on Labour's economic management have barely left scratch marks. There is only so much mileage in saying: mark my words, the end of the golden weather is nigh.

Policy is becoming more centrist as the party distances itself from its image of arrogant rule of the 1990s.

Sensing that the public has had enough of upheavals, National has said it will not overturn Labour policy in three key areas: the Employment Relations Act, income-related state house rents and elected district health boards.

National has had more traction with the gift of the teachers' strike and whipping up alarm about health service cuts ahead.

It has managed to chip support away from Labour, but these votes are going to other parties.

National is now hoping that this support is just "parking" itself with minor parties or among the "undecideds" before it sensibly finds its way home to National.

Regaining respectability does not rest on optimism alone. There has been a major rethink on National's strange art-house television advertisements in favour of a more direct message from English to the voter.

More effort will also be put into his other remaining television appearances.

He has an advantage over other Opposition party leaders next week through two prime-time debates with Helen Clark - the first alone with her since he became leader.

English goes head to head against Clark with Paul Holmes on One on Monday and with John Campbell on TV3 on Thursday.

But his first chance to impress voters comes tomorrow night, with a Kim Hill interview on One.

English will be aiming to end the week with more impact than his entrance. The problem for National is that time is running out fast.

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