Freedom beckons. Photo / Sylvie Whinray
OPINION:
Pandemic politics is circumscribed by what is possible, but not in the way you think.
The more choices that become possible, the more likely it is a government will make the wrong choice, or a choice people despise - the politics of choice are a great deal more difficult than politics when there is no alternative.
We've just seen an example of that today as the Government charts a course through the forest of options for managing a Covid outbreak, while reopening the country. On Monday, the Cabinet reaffirmed the decision - unthinkable even months ago - to relax restrictions in Auckland as cases and hospitalisations continue to rise.
Auckland will move to far greater freedoms - retail, public facilities, and larger outdoor gatherings will resume - and yes, it appears that this will lead to cases rising even further.
In the first year of the pandemic, the politics were relatively binary: light-touch restrictions that made life easy would lead to some transmission, which would inevitably lead to lots of transmission, which would lead to widespread death and economic destruction.
That meant throwing the book at the pandemic was really the only option: anything less and too many people would die, and the economy would be wrecked.
Labour's broad electoral coalition which appeared to draw on people across the income and ideological spectrum was perhaps a symptom of this - as was the fact that all parties accepted Labour's "elimination" strategy.
The Government was helped by the fact that high forecast case numbers meant that last year, there was a good chance that you, or someone you know would get Covid and get seriously ill.
The advent of the vaccine, and Covid treatments has changed this - and higher vaccination rates has accelerated that change.
The difference between higher and lower levels of restrictions in terms of their effect on case numbers is no longer vast. Relaxing restrictions increases cases, but the likelihood that you, or people you know will get sick and die is pretty slim.
High rates of vaccination also complicate politics because it injects an element of personal choice and responsibility into pandemic politics.
Last year, the success of the Covid response was largely determined by the Government taking the right decision about when to elevate restrictions. People always had the choice of whether or not to follow those restrictions, but they did so knowing that disobeying would put themselves and their communities at risk.
Vaccines have changed this by shifting the locus of responsibility from the Government to the individual. People, at an individual level, can decide to protect themselves against the worst effects of Covid-19; the Government takes a secondary role.
As the risk profile for individuals shifts, so does the Government's ability to impose restrictions and get people to follow them.
The shifting sands of the pandemic will play into the Government's next two big decisions, both due by the end of the month
The first, is next week's announcement on what to do to allow Aucklanders to travel over Christmas, the second is whether to move Auckland and the rest of the country into the traffic light system when vaccination rates are reviewed on November 29.
In both respects, Jacinda Ardern's comments on Monday suggested she'll take a fairly liberal approach, "pragmatic" in her words. It all but confirmed that Auckland and the rest of New Zealand will move to the traffic light system at the review on November 29.
"We said all along that we weren't going to hold everybody up for the sake of a DHB being at 88 or 89 per cent," is how Grant Robertson put it on Monday, in an interview with RNZ.
Aucklanders are almost certain to be able to travel around the country before Christmas.
Again, Ardern's comments on Monday suggested her commitment to this promise is greater than other competing priorities - even if it means putting Chris Hipkins' unpopular mandated travel times idea back on the table.
The politics of the pandemic have shifted markedly in the last month.
The close relationship between the Government and its Covid experts has fractured. When political expediency and health expertise were the same thing, politics was easy - when political expediency began to diverge from the advice of health experts, it was hardly a surprise a Government of politicians cast their lot with the former.
There are snags, of course. People under 12 are unable to be vaccinated currently, and it's likely that there exists enough community spirit still to tolerate higher restrictions to ensure children are safe.
The other issue is low rates of vaccination among Māori and in rural communities. This appears to be the result of a century of inequality of health outcomes.
It's difficult to know how many people are willing to tolerate living in higher restrictions for longer to give officials time to bump up Māori vaccination rates. It is, of course, the morally right thing to do, but that doesn't mean it will be done.
Ardern is not callous. Low Māori vaccination rates are something she cares about and Labour's Māori caucus will not accept a lack of effort.
But the cynic suggests that Ardern knows blame for that failure is likely to be attributed more broadly at a century of health inequity and not on her government directly.
This probably gives her some political cover should she choose to give up on getting some DHBs close to 90 per cent if it looks like they won't make it.
As is so often the case with Covid, just as the prevailing political winds seem to suggest one thing: a bias for loosening restrictions, evidence emerges that suggests the contrary.
Overseas, two recent events together conspired to convince some, including Pfizer board member Scott Gottlieb, to suggest that the pandemic could soon effectively be over.
The first, is the beginning of the international vaccine rollout for 5-11 year-olds, which will vastly increase vaccine coverage of vulnerable people.
The second event was clinical trials suggesting a new pill (again from Pfizer), cuts the risk of hospitalisation or death by 89 per cent in vulnerable adults.
More vaccinated people means less transmission, and antiviral medications means even people who get Covid are at far less risk of getting sick and dying. This future is likely to be mere months away for us, as soon as both are approved and available.
This could encourage the Government to revert back to a more cautious approach. Holding the line until vaccines and treatments are available would mean New Zealand really had done the impossible: almost entirely escaped a deadly global pandemic.
Modeller Shaun Hendy copped flak over the weekend for suggesting New Zealand could spend much of next year in the new "red" alert level - this currently appears unlikely, but it could happen if the Government truly feels a more stable future is just around the corner.
But with patience appearing to wane, it could stoke the opposite sentiment. If a better, safer, future really is just months away, the Government could feel like it has less to risk by moving faster to give Auckland freedoms and relax the border.