The top 10 electorate battles

Looking at the big picture, there are only two electorates that matter this election - Epsom and Tauranga, where Act and NZ First respectively are fighting for survival.

But delve deeper and it becomes apparent that other electorates are still significant - not because they will affect the overall shape of Parliament but because they can still influence its character.

Imagine Labour's chagrin if cabinet ministers Marian Hobbs or Jim Sutton were unseated. Imagine how much greyer the place would be without loose cannon John Tamihere. Imagine the mischief seasoned activist Hone Harawira might cause.

There could be a long list of other candidates in these seats but they become irrelevant as the battle boils down to an intimate game of one-on-one - Labour trying to fend off National; National tackling Act or NZ First; the Maori Party with too much pace for Labour.

Fans of bloodsports should check out these mano a mano contests:

AORAKI

Labour is confident Jim Sutton will keep the South Island seat he's held since 1990 but the polls beg to differ, with a recent Timaru Herald survey showing him nine points behind National candidate Jo Goodhew.

School closures, a land access policy unpopular with farmers in the heavily agricultural electorate, as well as a personal supporting role in Helen Clark's motorcade sideshow, have left the cabinet minister vulnerable to a strong campaign from registered nurse and well-known community worker Goodhew.

Whether that will fully erode his substantial 6453-vote majority remains to be seen, but at 11 and 31 on their party lists respectively, Sutton and Goodhew should both be in Parliament after the election.

Verdict: Labour.

EPSOM

The country's wealthiest electorate, Epsom is also one of only two constituencies of real strategic importance this election. With Act polling well below the 5 per cent threshold, the party's only lifeline is for leader Rodney Hide to win a seat.

Unfortunately for Act, all polling except their own shows Hide lagging considerably behind incumbent Richard Worth.

A former partner of Simpson Grierson, the country's largest law firm, Worth would be a possible attorney-general in a National Cabinet. He famously skipped an official commemoration service in Egypt in 2002 to go sightseeing on a camel.

Likely bronze medallist Stuart Nash, the Labour candidate, was effectively hobbled by his leadership with their suggestion that left-leaning voters should tactically support Worth to keep Hide and Act out of Parliament.

Verdict: National.

HAMILTON EAST

An indicator seat under the old electoral system, Hamilton East has tended to go with the Government of the day. Although indicator seats have no real meaning under MMP, Labour has admitted the seat is its most marginal electorate.

Labour incumbent Dianne Yates won in 2002 with a slim 614-vote margin, but a recent Waikato Times poll showed her trailing National's David Bennett by 14 points, 40 per cent to 26 per cent.

At 32, the Te Awamutu farmer, who is also a qualified lawyer and accountant, is National's youngest candidate.

Yates and Bennett both have winnable places on the party list so should be in Parliament, win or lose.

Labour is hoping for support from academics and students in the electorate, which includes Waikato University within its boundaries, but its hold on the seat could be too weak for a resurgent National Party.

Verdict: National.

INVERCARGILL

With the retirement of incumbent Labour MP Mark Peck, who outed himself as an alcoholic this year, National has a chance to claim back the southern seat it has held for 47 out of the last 59 years.

Recent polling has farmer and former MP Eric Roy leading Labour's Wayne Harpur 34.5 per cent to 21.4 per cent but with nearly a third of voters undecided, the race is far from over.

A long-time Invercargill resident, Harpur is the former chairman of Peck's electorate committee. He has inherited a majority of nearly 2800 from Peck but, at 53 on Labour's list, needs victory to make it into Parliament. Roy, at 37, could conceivably make it in off the list for National.

Verdict: National.

NORTHCOTE

Probably the only electorate in the Auckland region that National has a real chance of stealing from Labour.

Ann Hartley, a former mayor and an MP since 1999, beat National's Jeremy Sole by more than 2600 votes in the last election, but she should face stiffer competition this time from 38-year-old rising star Jonathan Coleman, a former GP in England and flying doctor in Australia and now a health consultant for PricewaterhouseCoopers.

Northcote has gone with the Government of the day since 1972.

Verdict: National. 

TAMAKI MAKAURAU

Recovering from an annus horribilis and having inexplicably opted off the Labour Party list, John Tamihere is fighting for political survival against Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples.

Tamihere has a whopping 9444-vote majority in the urban electorate, which covers Auckland city, Manukau and part of Waitakere, but recent polls have shown him to be trailing. His popularity was bruised by his public support for the Government's foreshore and seabed legislation, but remains intact, along with his roguish, rock star appeal.

He faces a formidable opponent in Sharples, who is a highly-regarded educator and the founder of Hoani Waititi marae in West Auckland.

Verdict: Maori Party

TAURANGA

With NZ First polling around 5 per cent, the party's survival may depend on leader Winston Peters holding his seat in Tauranga - making it the only electorate other than Epsom where the overall make-up of Parliament is at stake.

Peters has a 10,000-vote majority in the electorate he has held since 1984 but he hasn't always been that secure, his margin sinking to 63 in 1999. He faces a tougher-than-expected challenge from well-known property developer Bob "The Builder" Clarkson, whose campaign could be derailed by an investigation into his advertising spending.

Only a fool would rule Peters out, and he may yet pick up points from Labour supporters voting to stymie Clarkson. As our poll today shows, he sorely needs the numbers.

Verdict: National

TE TAI TOKERAU

One of the four electorates where the odds favour the Maori Party, Te Tai Tokerau runs from Auckland's North Shore all through Northland.

Incumbent Dover Samuels, a Labour MP since 1996, was stripped of his Maori Affairs portfolio in 2000 when facing criminal sex allegations, although no charges were laid. He mulled over jumping ship to form a Maori party, but stuck with Labour where he made headlines again earlier this year when caught short in a hotel corridor in Auckland.

The seasoned campaigner faces activist and iwi radio supremo Hone Harawira, son of Titiwhai Harawira and one of the organisers of the foreshore and seabed hikoi last year.

At 10 on the Labour list, Samuels will be back regardless. Not so Harawira, who excluded himself from the Maori Party list.

Verdict: Maori Party

WAIARIKI

Incumbent Mita Ririnui won a majority of more than 6700 at the last election but the Ratana minister seems likely to be unseated with a recent Marae-DigiPoll showing the Maori Party's Te Ururoa Flavell on 53.6 per cent support to Ririnui's 35.9 per cent. Though quiet to the point of invisibility as an MP, Ririnui has a ministerial post outside Cabinet, and associate portfolios.

This is the first election for Flavell, a former tertiary and secondary educator and principal who helped write the Maori Party's constitution.

Labour is hopeful several timely Treaty settlements in the region (encompassing Rotorua, Taupo, Tauranga and Whakatane) will boost Ririnui, but at 15 on the party list he will be back in Parliament regardless.

Verdict: Maori Party.

WELLINGTON CENTRAL

Two months ago the collective wisdom was that the blooper-prone Cabinet Minister Marian Hobbs had a real battle on her hands in this seat, which she won from Act's Richard Prebble in 1999 but in which she has struggled to make her mark.

The campaign of her opponent, former Wellington mayor Mark Blumsky, took a hit in July when he was found lying in the stairwell of his city apartment with a black eye, a broken tooth and covered in blood after a night on the town. Labour is relying on the large student population, and indications from National it will cut numbers of public servants, to return the seat to Hobbs.

Verdict: Labour

- HERALD ON SUNDAY