Hundreds of people are expected to rally outside the walls of the Auckland Central Remand Prison today calling for the freedom of Ahmed Zaoui.
Today is the anniversary of his second year in jail without charge - and on Tuesday he will spend his third birthday in a row behind bars in New Zealand.
But as the crowd outside sings Happy Birthday, this time he will have more hope in his heart.
The Algerian refugee is turning 44 just two days before he will find out if he will be released on bail.
Zaoui is pale, has lost weight, and several psychological reports have said he has suffered badly throughout his long imprisonment.
The Weekend Herald understands the Crown has come up with no new reasons as to why he should be refused bail.
A Supreme Court ruling granting him a bail hearing on Thursday invited the Crown to provide any further information about why he should stay in prison.
The court gave a 3pm deadline of Wednesday last week, but when it passed it is understood the Crown had filed only information it has already released.
This relates to French and Belgian court decisions on Zaoui and a decision by the Swiss to expel him when he sought refuge there.
This is understood to be the limited information the SIS has already released on why it issued Zaoui with a security risk certificate, alleging he is a danger to New Zealand's national security.
Zaoui's lawyers say the Crown has provided no new allegations or information to explain why he is considered such a danger.
The security risk certificate is under review but the process has stalled, waiting on another Supreme Court decision on whether the review should take his human rights into account.
The Crown has opposed his release from prison until the review is complete and his status sorted, but if the bail hearing goes his way he could be released as soon as Thursday evening.
Mike Treen, of Global Peace and Justice Auckland, which is organising today's rally, said thousands of leaflets and posters had been distributed and he believed "many hundreds" of people would turn out at the noon start time.
One of Zaoui's supporters is Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples, who says Zaoui has a lot of support within Maoridom.
"We have absolutely no right to keep that man in there any longer," he said.
"Now if there is such a fear, and some evidence that there may be something wrong, fine, send him away. But don't keep him in prison. From what I can gather they have found nothing and he should be released."
Uncertain times for refugee
If, eventually, the security risk certificate is upheld, it remains unclear what will happen to Zaoui.
New Zealand has signed international conventions which prevent him being sent to a country where he may be mistreated or to a country which may send him back to Algeria, where he faces a death sentence.
Zaoui is an MP whose party, the FIS or Islamic Front for Salvation, was swept to power in Algeria's first democratic elections but overthrown in a military coup.
He fled to Europe and has been dogged by allegations he may have been involved in terrorist activities.
New Zealand's Refugee Status Appeals Authority cleared him of any involvement after a lengthy investigation, proclaiming him instead a man of peace.
But the SIS issued the security risk certificate on the basis of classified information.
If the certificate is upheld, the implication that Zaoui is a risk would make it difficult for New Zealand to find anywhere willing to accept him.
Zaoui's family
His wife Leila and four sons are in hiding in Southeast Asia but even if he is granted bail the Weekend Herald understands they would not be able to visit him in New Zealand.
As he has already been granted refugee status, if he is eventually cleared as a security risk he can apply to bring them here to join him.
The Weekend Herald understands if they do not have valid travel documents the United Nations High Commission for Refugees would issue them.
If Zaoui is granted bail there are a few options as to where he could go:
Refugee centre
The Mangere Refugee and Resettlement Centre. This compound of accommodation blocks, medical and other facilities is set in 2ha of grounds and surrounded by fences and locked gates.
It caters for two classes of people - quota refugees who are free to come and go, getting in and out with the use of a swipe card.
The others are asylum-seekers, people who turn up at ports usually without appropriate papers after fleeing persecution. They are not able to leave until they are either deported or their status is cleared and they can apply to be refugees.
The Supreme Court will decide under which conditions Zaoui would be kept.
Religious retreat
The Dominican Friary in Newton, Auckland is the preferred option of Zaoui and his lawyers.
The Catholic order of priests has offered to care for him and has a room ready.
It contains a bed, desk and, if bail conditions allow it, a telephone. It is a preferred option partly because it would offer him time to recover from two years' jail in a calm environment with fellow clerics, albeit of different faiths.
One of the friars is activist priest Father Peter Murnane, who last year spilled his own blood on to the floor of the United States consulate office in protest at the Iraq war.
Vietnam
Usually people are deported to the last place they came from, which in his case is Vietnam.
But New Zealand is a signatory to international conventions preventing him being sent back to a country where he may be mistreated. Vietnam has a poor human rights record and is not a signatory to the international conventions. It is understood Vietnam is unwilling to have Zaoui back anyway.
Malaysia
Zaoui lived in Malaysia, a Muslim country, with his family before fleeing to New Zealand.
He left Malaysia after reports that Algeria was seeking his extradition.
He fled Burkina Faso because he had heard the Algerian Government was sending a death squad for him.
It would be difficult to send him to Malaysia. It is not a signatory to the international conventions and is in the process of deporting one million illegal aliens.
The Pacific solution
The Swiss paid Burkina Faso to take Zaoui and it is possible the New Zealand Government could come to a private arrangement with another nation. Australia paid Nauru to take Tampa refugees. However, it is unlikely New Zealand would pay a poor Pacific nation to take Zaoui as it would be sending someone deemed to be too dangerous to stay here to an even more vulnerable country.
The next step for Zaoui
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