The new marginal seats

By HELEN TUNNAH

National's falling poll ratings have put even previously safe electorates in danger, and some MPs - even in heartland seats - will be in for a nervous election night.

Today's Herald-DigiPoll survey suggests one-quarter of National's support has been wiped since the last election, and a party insider has told the Herald the swing against National could cut 1500 votes from it in each seat. The drop to 23 per cent support from 30.5 at the last election has left a swag of seats marginal, including the one-time stronghold of rural Otago. The party holds Rangitikei by a whisker, Labour could grab Whangarei and even Nelson, where third-ranked Nick Smith has a 4521 majority, could be close.

National's gloom is relieved by two bright spots. Sandra Goudie is tipped to win Coromandel from Green co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons, and Jeremy Sole could be a longshot winner in Northcote.

RANGITIKEI

Pity Simon Power on election night. His fragile 289-vote majority is the most slender of any National seat, meaning he is in for a nervous evening.

Party faithful remain optimistic their high-flyer of the 1999 intake has done enough work to hold his seat.

Power, 32, took over Rangitikei from the long-time MP Dennis Marshall after a career as a lawyer.

National's majority dropped from more than 2700 with the changeover.

A swing against National could be expected to harm Power, but the party hierarchy is taking no chances of losing him.

He is number 13 on National's list, so is expected to remain an MP.

Labour hopes to pick up any homeless Alliance voters and maybe former New Zealand First supporters. These two parties gathered almost 4000 votes between them in 1999, and Peters' party is not standing a candidate this year.

Labour's candidate is Margaret Hayward, 61, biographer of party icon and former Prime Minister Norman Kirk. She has moved in to the electorate from Otaki.

The one-time newspaper typesetter became Parliament's first woman private secretary in 1967, and continued as Kirk's private secretary when he was Prime Minister between 1972 and 1974.

HAMILTON EAST

Hamilton East voters could be excused for not being too sure who their local MP is.

National's Tony Steel and Labour's Dianne Yates have battled for the seat for the past 10 years, and both are current MPs.

Unfortunately for Steel, that may be the factor which gives the seat to Labour this election.

Yates already has a local profile, which will help in her attempt to wrest the seat off National.

Steel, a former All Black, won the seat in 1990, 1993 and 1999.

Yates won it in 1996 and got into Parliament as a Labour list MP last time.

Steel held the seat by 692 votes last election, so even a small electorate vote swing to Labour will cause him problems.

He refused to go on National's list, so all his eggs are in the electorate basket. Yates is sure to return to Parliament on Labour's list.

The minor party votes could control the outcome of the seat. The high-polling Greens have entered the fray, and Steel's best chance of keeping out Yates might be for their candidate, 22-year-old Cathy Olsen, to pinch some Labour support.

Olsen says the Steel-Yates stranglehold has "stupefied" local voters, and this is reflected in extremely low enrolment rates for young people.

KAIKOURA

They must have been worried about Dr Lynda Scott at National Party headquarters when they drew up their list.

With a seemingly comfortable majority of 1486, Scott should be assured of a return to Parliament as Kaikoura's MP.

But she is at 12 on National's list, giving her a secure return ticket to Parliament, and a sign the party recognises she faces a battle against Labour.

A local newspaper poll last month put her ahead of her challenger, former political journalist Brendon Burns, who is also handily placed to get into Parliament on the Labour list.

Burns was once dubbed Lord Burns by his colleagues, and that apparent conservatism may be his biggest handicap in campaigning for the seat.

He will get a significant boost though from the homeless Alliance votes.

In 1999, Alliance candidate Lindsay Mehrtens picked up more than 2000 votes and it will be up to Burns to persuade those voters to switch to him and not to Green list MP Ian Ewen-Street.



Scott is confident she has enough support to withstand Burns' challenge. She accepts many Alliance votes will go to Burns, but expects that some will support a candidate from Jim Anderton's new Progressive Coalition.

WHANGAREI

After 30 years of National rule in Whangarei, the party faces a real threat from an active, high-profile Labour challenger.

David Shearer, a former aid worker awarded an MBE by the National Government for his work in Somalia, is taking on first-term MP Phil Heatley.

Replacing the irrepressible but controversial John Banks, Heatley extended National's majority at the last election.

That was because Banks almost lost the previously safe seat to New Zealand First's Brian Donnelly in 1996.

Heatley's hard campaigning earned him a 1934 vote majority, but Shearer is fighting hard and points out Labour is ahead on the party vote in Whangarei.

Shearer has made a deal with Alliance candidate Tricia Cutforth and has her support for the electorate vote.

Donnelly is also focusing on the party vote this time.

Donnelly and Cutforth pulled 8900 votes in 1999, more than the Labour candidate, and Shearer thinks if he can lure enough of those votes, he has a strong chance of upsetting Heatley.

Muriel Newman could play a key role. The Act candidate is after the party vote, but could pull in a couple of thousand electorate votes which otherwise would probably go to Heatley.

OTAGO

Otago MP Gavan Herlihy represents the farming roots that used to be so familiar to National voters.

But even he can no longer feel secure in his electorate.

Otago features the battle of the locals, and Labour expects Roxburgh's David Parker to push Ranfurly-born Herlihy hard for the seat.

It may be too much for Parker this time, but hopes are high he will at least put a dent in Herlihy's majority of 2367.

Herlihy will battle the swing against National. Many in the conservative heartland are uneasy about party president Michelle Boag's cleanout of "deadwood".

The drop in National's poll rating, from 30 per cent last election to 23 per cent in today's Herald-DigiPoll, could cost a candidate up to 1500 votes, a big dip if you're Herlihy.

He may pick up votes from Act's Gerry Eckhoff, who is bound by his party's wishes to campaign primarily for the party vote rather than the electorate vote. But having his name on the ballot paper will ensure Eckhoff retains many of his 1600 votes from 1999.

The unknown factor will be the almost 2000 Alliance votes and the 1800 Green votes from 1999. The Alliance is fielding a candidate but the Greens are not.

CLEVEDON

Clevedon may be where the unrest with National bites.

Local MP Warren Kyd was dumped after 15 years, and Remuera lawyer Judith Collins was selected to replace him in the new South Auckland seat.

She has worked hard to rid herself of the carpetbagger tag, but there may be some factors she cannot overcome.

On paper, the electorate majority for National is about 3000, but much of that was personal support for Kyd who was well-liked in the caucus and in the seat, previously named Hunua.

Compare the electorate vote to the party vote and, after boundary changes, the seat is at best marginal and at worst Labour.

Gone is much of the prime Karaka rural vote; in are 12,000 votes from Howick. That suburb has a strong Asian vote, which could go to Collins, who has a Chinese-Samoan husband, but could swing to Act instead.

The low-tax, crackdown-on-crime party has chased the Southeast Asian vote hard in Auckland. Clevedon will provide a clue as to how well Act's campaign strategy has worked.

Collins has no chance of becoming an MP on National's list, but her Labour opponent, unionist Dave Hereora, is certain to become an MP through the Labour list.

NELSON

Incumbent MP and former Cabinet minister Nick Smith has a good local following and should have an easy ride back to Parliament ... but pick this electorate as a long shot for Labour.

In 1996 Smith had a 12,400 vote majority. That was sliced to 4500 three years ago, and boundary changes have since further eroded his advantage.

Estimates suggest up to 1000 mainly rural votes have been taken from Nelson, and added to the West Coast-Tasman seat.

Critically, Nelson is staunchly Labour on the party vote - 40 per cent to 27 per cent for National.

Backers of new Labour candidate John Kennedy, son of a former Motueka mayor, are urging supporters not to split their votes this time.

Kennedy, 38, was locally schooled and has run recreation and tourism activities in the region. He's been campaigning full-time since February.

Add to the mix Green candidate Mike Ward, who won more than 3500 votes last time, and the race becomes intriguing.



Whose voters switch to Green or switch away from the Alliance might very well determine who the next local MP is.

Smith has been given a safe list berth, Ward is a likely new list MP for the Greens and Kennedy chose not to go on Labour's list.

COROMANDEL

Coromandel should provide one of National's few electorate bright spots on election night - Sandra Goudie is favoured to take the seat off Green MP Jeanette Fitzsimons.

The crash in relations between the Greens co-leader and Labour seems likely to have dealt a mortal blow to Fitzsimons' hopes of holding the electorate. She won in 1999 by 250 votes with Labour's help.

Helen Clark, Opposition leader at the time, effectively endorsed Ms Fitzsimons over Labour's candidate in a move to ensure that the Greens were represented in Parliament and to keep Labour's coalition options open.

Such cosy deals are out this election.

Max Purnell is campaigning hard for two ticks for Labour, so Fitzsimons has little chance of keeping the seat. But she will be returned on the list.

Fitzsimons says that if Purnell stays in the race he will hand the seat to National, and the polls suggest she is right. But Goudie can take credit if she wins back the once-true-blue seat. She beat former MP Murray McLean for National's nomination, and has campaigned fulltime since Christmas.



Purnell is chipping away at her support, but also has a reasonable list ranking, so Coromandel may get three local MPs.

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