Minister Phil Twyford and new KiwiBuild homeowners Derryn Jayne and Fletcher Ross stand with PM Jacinda Ardern outside their Papakura home. Photo / Greg Bowker
It began with a roar – a standing ovation for Labour's then-leader David Shearer at the party's 2012 annual conference as he announced the KiwiBuild policy.
"I can already hear our opponents claiming 'this is too bold, the problem is too big and there is nothing we can do about it'," he told those gathered.
Seven years later, those opponents claim they were proved right as the flagship policy lies in tatters.
It has missed its targets by a mile. The KiwiBuild Unit's boss resigned and sued the Government, alleging he was forced to resign, and the minister in charge of the policy was stripped of the Housing portfolio.
On September 4, Housing Minister Megan Woods, who was put in charge of the policy in July, will announce the KiwiBuild reset.
After 18 months, it has simply failed to deliver – Woods has been open about this.
"KiwiBuild hasn't worked the way we wanted it to," she told media in July.
"New Zealanders want us to be honest when something isn't working, and for us to keep trying to get the settings right."
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has made similar comments about the policy, as has former Housing Minister Phil Twyford.
National's Housing spokeswoman Judith Collins, who has been clinical in her KiwiBuild criticism, goes much further and has called the policy an abject failure.
Looking at the numbers, it's clear to see the policy has fallen well short of expectations.
In 2012, Shearer promised Labour would build 100,000 homes over 10 years – that's 10,000 a year.
But early in his tenure as Housing Minister, Twyford shifted the goalposts.
He now said expected 1000 KiwiBuild homes in the year to June 2019, 5000 in the next year, 10,000 by June 2021, and 12,000 every year after that.
But even that proved to be too ambitious. In late June this year, days before the first KiwiBuild milestone, only 119 KiwiBuild houses had been constructed.
That number is almost 260 today.
So what happened?
According to Real Estate Institute of New Zealand chief executive Bindi Norwell, a variety of factors contributed to the policy's failure.
"I think it was more complex than was originally envisaged."
She said the Government likely found there was more red tape than it had expected, which slowed the building process.
Norwell pointed to the high cost of construction and building as a roadblock as well.
"I do think that it was a little bit too ambitious, particularly in the early stages," she said of KiwiBuild.
NZIER principal economist Christina Leung agreed with Norwell about the construction costs and added that inflation has also been a factor.
That pushed the cost of the so-called affordable KiwiBuild homes higher – too high for many people, she said.
"That raises the question: Who are these houses actually for?
"You would need a reasonably high income to afford one of these homes, that's why it's been hard to find the demand for them."
KiwiBuild development sites in places like Wanaka and Te Kauwhata failed to attract much demand from potential buyers.
There have also been demand issues with Waikato KiwiBuild homes.
Not a lot is known about tomorrow's reset; the Government has been careful to keep details under wraps.
But when he was Housing Minister, Twyford did confirm the Government would be resetting its entire build programme.
That includes social housing, state houses and any state building programme.
Finance Minister Grant Robertson has promised the reset will mean a bigger and better housing policy which is as "creative as possible".
One area which may well be included is a rent-to-own scheme.
Ardern was asked about such a scheme on the AM Show this morning and pointed out that this initiative was in the Labour/Greens supply and confidence agreement.
That agreement stated: "A rent-to-own scheme or similar progressive ownership models will be developed as part of Labour's KiwiBuild programme".
Greens co-leader Marama Davidson told the party's annual conference last month that she had been negotiating with the Government to get the policy included in the upcoming reset.
Leung said she would welcome a rent-to-own scheme being part of the reset.
"It goes back to what is the main aim of KiwiBuild; do we want people to be able to own homes, or do we want everyone to have a secure roof over their head?"
If the goal is the latter, she said it makes sense that the scheme is included.
Another element of the policy reset which remains unclear is whether or not the KiwiBuild name would remain.
Critics say the brand is tarnished and calling it something else would be a better strategic move for the Government.
And for a while, it looked as though the name was set to be dropped.
Both Ardern and Woods refused to confirm if the policy would still be called KiwiBuild after the reset.
But this morning, when asked if the Government would keep the name KiwiBuild, Ardern said: "You have continued to hear me use it," suggesting the name would remain.
Robertson was a bit clearer, telling Breakfast: "KiwiBuild, as we have known it, will still form a part of our future".
November, 2012: Labour Leader David Shearer launches the KiwiBuild policy
2014 and 2017 elections: Labour campaigns on KiwiBuild
November 8, 2017: The Speech from the Throne confirms the Government would build 100,000 homes through its KiwiBuild policy
December 19, 2017: Twyford sets up interim KiwiBuild Unit to help facilitate the building of the homes
March 25, 2018: Government purchases 29ha of land at Unitec in Auckland to build KiwiBuild homes
April 28, 2018: Construction begins on the first KiwiBuild homes
May 8, 2018: Twyford launches the "Buying off the Plans" scheme
July 4, 2018: People are invited to register their expressions of interest to buy a KiwiBuild home – close to 6000 people register interest in 24 hours
September – October, 2018: Government opens ballots on a number of KiwiBuild homes across the country
October 27, 2018: First people move into a KiwiBuild home
December 18, 2018: KiwiBuild home start grant announced
January 23, 2019: Twyford admits KiwiBuild will fall short of its first 1000-home target
January 28, 2019: KiwiBuild boss Stephen Barclay resigns amid an employment investigation – sues the Government for wrongful dismissal
January 30, 2019: Government scraps KiwiBuild interim targets and launches recalibration
May 8, 2019: Twyford and Ardern could not commit to KiwiBuild's 100,000-homes target
May 9, 2019: Judith Collins calls for Twyford's resignation and the scrapping of KiwiBuild
June 12, 2019: Twyford says the KiwiBuild reset will actually be a reset of the Government's entire house-building programme
June 27, 2019: Twyford is stripped of the Housing portfolio in Ardern's reshuffle and Megan Woods is given the portfolio
July 23, 2019: Woods again pushes out the planned time of the KiwiBuild reset to the end of August
August 4, 2019: Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson says the Greens are negotiating to get a rent-to-own scheme in the reset
September 4, 2019: The Government to unveils the KiwiBuild reset
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