What will the weather in New Zealand be like this winter? - The Front Page

The mercury is set to drop this winter. Photo / Bevan Conley

The end of March left New Zealanders shivering as temperatures dropped sharply across the country, and it looks like there’s more to come.

Niwa meteorologist Chris Brandolino tells The Front Page that the recent burst of cold weather serves as a precursor to the type of winter we’ll likely have.

“Because we’re entering El Niño in the tropical Pacific, our airflows are going to be changing,” says Brandolino.

“What that means for New Zealand is that we tend to get more southwest winds during the autumn, and more southerly winds during the winter. So, it’s very likely that as we progress through autumn, especially May, and as we enter the winter season, we’ll see a propensity for more southwest and southerly winds.”

Bradonlini says that over the last three years, New Zealanders have become accustomed to milder winters due to the impact of La Niña, but we should not be expecting that this year.

“We’ve had record-warm winters, so people have developed a recency bias [regarding] what winter is like.”

While the temperatures do look likely to drop, Brandonlini says that the verdict is still out on what this will mean for the ski season.

“To make snow, you need moisture. And what the guidance is showing is that as we get toward May, June and beyond, the air will be colder, but there may not be a lot of moisture. We could be leaning in a dry direction, especially for the North Island.”

That said, Brandolino says that the colder conditions will mean a better ski season than we’ve seen in recent years – particularly for larger ski fields that can make their own snow.

“Those ski fields that are smaller and maybe don’t have the deep pockets to make snow could still struggle, because even though it’ll be on the cooler side, we may not have a lot of snow falling from Mother Nature.”

So, how dry will the winter be, and could this create problems further down the line? What factors are influencing our weather at the moment? How cold could this winter be? And are there any affordable ways to keep your house warm when the mercury drops?

Listen to the full episode of The Front Page to hear Brandolino elaborate on how much further the mercury could drop.