The Front Page: Summer of rain – Why has the weather been so bad?

The data is in and it shows that the summer has been objectively awful.

NIWA meteorologist Ben Noll tells the Front Page podcast that Auckland has this month seen only about 27 hours of bright sunshine through the first 12 days.

“The average [for this period] is usually about 93 hours, so we’re at about 28 per cent of what’s normal - and that’s the story across the North Island. Whether you’re in Northland, Auckland, Bay of Plenty or Gisborne, you’ve only had maybe one to three hours of sunshine on average per day.”

This is not the first time the summer has left New Zealanders disappointed.

Back in 2017, former Member of Parliament Peter Dunne started a petition suggesting that we move the holidays to February to ensure a more consistent summer period.

But Noll isn’t convinced that this would deliver the desired result.

“If you were to use the average stats, for some places December is the better month overall if you’re looking for low rainfall and warm temperatures. And for others, it might be January. Overall, you’ll also have some years where summer starts early.”

Noll points to the example of 2021 when the summer kicked off in November and the country enjoyed warm weather for months.

“It depends on the year and the climate drivers that we have. La Niña will always reduce the odds on those long sunny spells as it has this summer.”

While continuous rain has hammered the North Island, the South Island has benefitted from long periods of fine weather.

“La Niña tends to flip the New Zealand weather on its head, where the best weather tends to move down to the West Coast and Southland, where those places bask in the sunshine. In Greymouth, we had our very first time on record since 1947 that it exceeded 30 degrees Celsius.”

Noll says that Kiwis looking for good weather should consider heading down to these areas if they can.

But what about the North Island? Will February hold the promise of slightly better weather? And how much can we even trust weather reports?

Listen to the full episode of the Front Page podcast to hear Noll’s forecast on what’s heading our way and the stats showing how often forecasters get it right.