Terrorist attacks unlikely in NZ, say experts

New Zealand is vulnerable to terrorism but experts agree it is highly unlikely an attack will take place here.

Clive Williams, from the Australian National University's defence and policy department, says it is important to look at the targets of the terrorist.

With al Qaeda and related groups, the target is usually American or Israeli.

If New Zealand was attacked, the target would probably be synagogues or Jewish communities, or diplomatic posts.

Suicide bombers blowing up the local bus in New Zealand or Australia is inconceivable, he says.

"Those are things that happen in a particular context because of occupation. That's the kind of thing that happens in Israel because of Israel occupying the West Bank. They're localised issues.

"But you can't be complacent about it. Just because you haven't had an incident for a while doesn't mean you're not going to have one."

Rohan Gunaratna, a terrorism expert based in Singapore, says al Qaeda has no stronghold in New Zealand or Australia but that did not rule out them, or connected groups, infiltrating and striking. But the chance was remote.

The wider Pacific presented no immediate threat of terrorism either, he said.

Attacks abroad, such as this week's bombing of the Australian Embassy in Jakarta, seem unlikely to stop New Zealanders from travelling. But they may take more care. Hits on the Ministry of Foreign Affairs website's travel advisory section have skyrocketed since the the September 11 tragedy, showing many more people are checking security warnings.

Rosemary Banks, deputy-secretary in charge of consular affairs, said even though a lot of the countries on the site were listed before September 11, New Zealanders had been a bit blase about travelling.

New Zealanders were still "great and hungry travellers" but there was much greater demand now from the public for information about security risks.