Terrorism attack risks not high in NZ, says expert

A Southeast Asia terrorism expert says the United States-led "war on terror" has heightened the risk of terror attacks in the West, and made it new enemies even in the moderate Muslim world.

Sidney Jones, Indonesia-based director of the International Crisis Group think tank, delivered a seminar on terrorism and conflict in Indonesia to New Zealand officials yesterday.

She said that New Zealand was not likely to be in danger from al Qaeda or other militant Islamic cells.

"While I think it's important to be vigilant in New Zealand, I don't think the risk of an attack here is very high," Ms Jones said in an interview.

However Australia's prominent role in the Iraq war meant that it was "right to be concerned". She believed any attacks were likely to come from groups outside Southeast Asia, at an overseas target such as an Australian embassy in Europe or Africa, rather than on Australian soil.

America's thunderous response to the September 11 attacks two years ago had made it the world's worst terrorist in the eyes of many, she said.

"The problem is when the war on terror is seen as a war against Islam."

The US-led war in Iraq, apparent anti-Muslim immigration policies and FBI spot checks on students with Muslim names had created new antipathy for the West even within moderate Muslim states such as Indonesia.

The latest policies fuelled existing resentment over US support for Israel, she said.

"It all reinforces this mindset that America is the No 1 enemy against Islam, or it's often extended to include America and its lackeys."

This had raised the risk of terrorist attacks, beyond al Qaeda, to smaller Islamic groups scattered from Afghanistan to the Philippines.

"I think there are serious concerns that the way the war in Iraq has been conducted has exacerbated the danger of terrorism, not reduced it."

Even among Indonesia's moderate Muslim majority there was a "sneaking support" for Indonesian based militant group Jemaah Islamiyah as they believed it was fighting terror by the US.

"A lot of people would agree with the statement made by Hamzah Haz, the vice-president of Indonesia, that the US was the world's major terrorist."

That made it politically difficult for the Indonesian Government to participate in the US-led war on terror, "because it's politically unpopular to be allied too closely to the countries that are leading the war on terror".

Jemaah Islamiyah, which has links to al Qaeda and seeks an Islamic superstate across Asia, had been severely weakened in the region after the arrest of many senior leaders had driven it underground.

"That said, I think there's still a number of seriously dangerous people who are still at large and who could go off and attack under the right circumstances."

But dangerous smaller groups "which may not be on the radar screen" had emerged from places such as Afghanistan and the Philippines and could pose a threat to countries such as Australia.

For example, a weekend bombing in Thailand's Muslim-dominated south remained mysterious, she said.

"There's real concern in Thailand now that violence is picking up in the south and nobody is quite sure who's responsible."

To combat terrorism, she said, it was important for different agencies and Governments to co-ordinate, and understand what motivated each group.

"There isn't really a one-size-fits-all terrorism policy you can just adopt in place," Ms Jones said.

The ICG is an independent, multinational organisation based in Brussels working to resolve conflict.

Crisis watch

* The International Crisis Group is an independent, non-profit, multinational organisation, with more than 100 staff on five continents.

* It works through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict.

* It received a $100,000 grant from Foreign Affairs and Trade this year towards research into the causes of instability in Indonesia.

- NZPA