Taylor Rice: How 2022 will define the next General Election

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. Photo / Dean Purcell, File

Opinion

OPINION

This is a defining political year, which will significantly shape the conversation during the
next general election.

The stage for campaigns will be set by both the successes and failures of political parties this year.

It may seem normal prior to an election, however the circumstances that both the National and Labour party are under are extraordinary. Both have key events that will unfold over the course of 2022, which are crucial in the eyes of voters.

Both parties are heavily depending on these events succeeding prior to their campaigns, to have a positive perception from the public.

These circumstances have the potential to mark a major turning point in polls, campaigns and the debates surrounding the next time voters make their decision.

Is Christopher Luxon a credible challenge to Jacinda Ardern? Illustration / Rod Emmerson, File

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's long term Covid-19 strategy is now in place, and the success of this strategy will mark a point of significance for how they perform in the polls.
With the Omicron variant now in the country, this will stress-test the traffic light system and the perception of this strategy from voters will heavily impact on how Labour performs in the next election.

Along with the traffic light system, Labour is also reliant on success with the ongoing Covid-19 recovery plan to ensure voters the country can bounce back from the pandemic economically.

The phased border reopening is set to begin at the end of February this year. This plan to reconnect New Zealand with the rest of the world is another critical factor on how Labour will be judged. Many have expressed frustration over the current MIQ system, and the reopening plan will be able to ease these concerns if done successfully.

If the border reopening is delayed again, this could impact on the perception of Labour's performance in the eyes of voters.

Taylor Rice. Photo / Supplied

If Labour's plans are perceived positively, it can campaign on how their party is the right choice for voters. If their plans are perceived negatively, the Opposition will use this against them during the next election cycle.

National's year ahead also will heavily influence the next election.

First impressions are important, and National's appointment of Christopher Luxon as the new leader at the end of 2021 marks a turning point for the party. Eyes will be on how he performs as a leader, as well as how he shapes the National Party in time for campaigning in 2023.

Leading the Opposition comes with the ability to criticise the current Government's decisions to an audience of potential voters, and voice their concerns with policy decisions that may be negatively impacting them.

Luxon's performance has the potential to mark a major shift for National, and how it unfolds over the course of 2022 will dictate whether National has the potential to be a strong contender in the next election.

Both National and Labour have been through a turbulent past year.

Labour has had the ongoing struggle of dealing with a pandemic, and having all eyes on decision-making that affects everyone in the country.

National is coming back from years of being seen as unfavourable in the polls, with potential voters paying close attention to how Luxon will attempt to bring reassurance to the public.

Both parties have the opportunity to rectify voters' concerns this year. Ardern has the opportunity to display the new Covid-19 response with the wave of Omicron and the borders reopening. Luxon has the opportunity to set the stage for his political party and validate the concerns of the centre-right base in order to be seen as a favourable candidate.

This upcoming year in politics will involve both parties focusing on how they are perceived, and the current circumstances have provided the perfect opportunity to do just that.

Time will tell how these events unfold, and how the public responds to both main parties' attempts at being seen as the right choice in the next general election.

• Taylor Rice is a political science and international relations graduate from Victoria University of Wellington.