KEY POINTS:
The battle for the Tauranga seat will be one of the most hotly contested of the election.
There are only two real contenders for MP - National's new young candidate Simon Bridges, and New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.
Mr Peters held the seat for 21 years and
even now, after losing to National's Bob Clarkson in 2005 and suffering weeks of negative publicity over the donations scandal, some pundits predict a comeback.
"You should never write Winston Peters off," Tauranga Mayor Stuart Crosby said.
Mr Peters' defeat at the last election was a narrow one, with only 730 of 36,320 votes separating him and Mr Clarkson.
Although polling badly, Mr Crosby said Mr Peters still enjoyed solid support from Tauranga's elderly, and he and others expected the veteran politician to wage a bitter battle against 31-year-old Mr Bridges.
Said Bay of Plenty Times business editor and political reporter Graham Skellern: "I'm picking Winston will pick on him."
For Mr Peters, there is a lot at stake. A low vote in Tauranga would not only cost him the chance of being the city's MP again, but with poor party votes in other electorates, it could deprive New Zealand First of the 5 per cent it needs to stay in Parliament.
Over the years, Mr Peters' populist policies and oratorical skills have earned him diehard fans among Tauranga's Grey Power members.
But sources within the organisation said that fan base - once known as "Winston's Army" - was diminishing. "That's almost on natural attrition, too," Mr Skellern added.
Meanwhile, polls show support for Mr Bridges is growing, reflecting the pains taken to build his profile.
He gave up his job to campaign full-time and has posted far more billboards than his rivals - a wise strategy in a city where large numbers of residents arrive and leave each week, and few candidates can rely on long-term recognition.
The former Crown prosecutor also seeks the seat in the knowledge that National enjoyed a meteoric rise in Tauranga in 2005, securing 45 per cent of the party vote - up from 22 per cent in 2002 - while New Zealand First was reduced to third place, behind Labour.
And although the electorate (which includes Mt Maunganui) still has the third highest proportion of over 65s, it is no longer "God's waiting room", and has a growing population of young families and immigrants, particularly from South Africa and Britain.
Residents also tend to be conservative, perhaps because the city lacks the ethnic diversity of other areas.
Only 1.7 per cent of the population is Pacific, and 3.6 per cent Asian, compared to the national averages of 6.9 per cent and 9.2 per cent, respectively.
Family incomes are about average, and the issues that dominate Tauranga are the same as other urban electorates - transport, crime and health, and, now, the global credit crisis and rising cost of living.
Of the other political parties, Labour generally makes the strongest showing, winning the party vote in 2002.
Larry Baldock, who headed a petition for a referendum on the anti-smacking law, is standing for the Kiwi Party this year after breaking away from United Future.
Between 2001 and 2006, Bay of Plenty's population grew 17 per cent - more than double the 8 per cent national average.
The population boom has added more young families to the ranks of rural and retired voters, but the relatively affluent electorate - which sits in a U shape around Tauranga - is still considered a safe National seat.
Tony Ryall has been the MP since 1996, and increased his hold in 2005 to win 58 per cent of the candidate vote - his party's largest electorate majority.
Boundaries have changed this election to include areas to the northeast of Tauranga such as Te Puna and Omokoroa, but exclude areas to the southwest such as Edgecumbe and Matata.
This is not, however, expected to affect Mr Ryall's dominance because the rural-urban mix of the electorate has not really changed.
Two-thirds of voters live in urban areas such as Papamoa, and what Mr Ryall may lose in farmers' votes, he is likely to gain from retirees and residents of lifestyle blocks. Labour is fielding Carol Devoy-Heena, who is second to bottom on her party list, while Peter Brown is standing again for New Zealand First.
Double amputee Tony Christiansen is the Kiwi Party candidate.
Coromandel was the first electorate to elect a Green MP - party co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons in 1999 - but before and after that the seat was won by National.
Barring an upset, incumbent Sandra Goudie is likely to continue the party's reign, proving popular as National's spokeswoman for senior citizens in an electorate that has the country's highest proportion of 50 to 64-year-olds and second highest proportion of over 65s.
Although the region has some of the country's lowest family incomes, wealth from farming filters down into local communities, and those who live and work there have tended to vote for National in larger numbers than its rivals. Labour is fielding a new candidate, Hugh Kininmonth, who is ranked near the bottom of his party's list but says he wants to secure 3000 additional party votes to help Helen Clark's Government stay in power.
Support for the Greens and New Zealand First declined between 2002 and 2005 in the electorate, which covers the Coromandel Peninsula and Hauraki Plains, down to Waihi and Katikati.
