KEY POINTS:
It's been a full on 10 days of weather but, for now, it's calming down.
We have about three days of relatively calm weather ahead of us thanks to all our nasty lows departing away to the south east of New Zealand and some high pressure now building over the country.
Winter's coldest is definitely behind us now and while brief cold snaps are expected as late as December sometimes, the worst of the "cold stuff" is now looking like it's behind us. But there's something a little unsettling about the lack of frosts at this time of year.
It means we've entered a wet weather pattern. The Tasman Sea is starting to become a breeding ground for low pressure - much like it did last July and August when around 10 big low pressure systems formed bringing storms to Northland that have made these past two slightly pale in comparison.
The ground is sodden right over the country. When you walk on grass the water squidges below you - and that's if you're lucky enough to still have grass. New Zealand's three largest cities have been affected by slips or flooding or gales.
And more lows are in the picture for later in the week. Long range models are showing plenty of instability out in the Tasman with a number of low pressure systems popping up during the week. At this stage nothing too severe is in the picture, but with an unstable atmosphere forecasters will be quick to point out that "anything can happen".
It's not just New Zealand that's seeing wetter than normal conditions. In Canada huge rain storms have created one of the wettest summers in a very long time.
Down in the United States big storms are developing due to the immense heat - and out in the Atlantic the hurricanes have been forming - however so far America has been lucky to only have a couple 'graze' by.
I think we can expect a couple more unsettled weeks but beyond that who knows. I've said it before many times before that I'm not a huge fan of long range forecasts for New Zealand.
We are two small islands on the edge of the planets largest ocean and smack bang in the roaring 40's. We're affected by sub-tropical storms and polar blasts and many micro-climates due to our wild landscape.
While we can certainly predict La Nina and El Nino conditions I don't think many expected record breaking droughts over the North Island under La Nina this past summer. To me our country is just too vulnerable to the weather patterns when it comes to long range forecasts.
So rather than worry about whether or not Spring will be a wet and warm or cold and snowy one, I recommend not worrying about it just yet - and enjoying a couple of mostly sunny, calm, days that lie ahead.
Get some Vitamin D on your skin before Mother Nature gets bored and decides to stir us all up again.
Philip Duncan
For the latest weather news keep up to date with The Radio Network's new Weather Watch Centre or the NZ Herald weather section.
Pictured above: Slip blocking both lanes SH1 just south of the Dome valley, north of Warkworth. Photo / Tania Webb
