Tasman blaze: Weekend rain unlikely

Helicopters using monsoon buckets dropping water on a flare-up in the Tasman bush fire in the Teapot Valley near Wakefield. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Rain in the Nelson region is unlikely over the weekend as firefighters work furiously to control multiple fires.

The MetService says light showers are expected in the northern-Nelson region but more than 20km from the initial blaze that exploded in Pigeon Valley, near Wakefield, on Tuesday.

Fresh northern breezes coming off the sea were anticipated to ease overnight, MetService meteorologist Larissa Marintchenko said.

She said these breezes were normal for this time of year but were not helping control the spread of the fire.

"Fire is more likely to spread when it is strong and gustily," Marintchenko said.

Yesterday,the winds in the region were around 90km/h but that was expected to lighten overnight.

Today, cloud and some isolated showers are forecast "but not significant and limited to the northern ranges," Marintchenko said.

Unfortunately, not much rain is forecast for Nelson in the next 7 days. Might get a little bit later on Monday, but not likely to be substantial. https://t.co/2Avd8QVQn8. This satellite image from this morning shows the extent of the smoke. ^SG pic.twitter.com/2wCaGHFtgG

— MetService (@MetService) February 8, 2019

Fresh light coastal winds are expected to continue this morning across the region.

A similar forecast is expected for Sunday, again with light winds and little to no rain.

The weekend temperature was expected to remain in the early to mid 20s, with an overnight average of 15C.

"Scattered rain" is expected to develop on Monday but "again not significant, just light rain for the western region but not near the fires," Marintchenko said.

Civil Defence said the weather was favourable, the Pigeon Valley fire had not grown, and the intensity of the fire had decreased.

However, the situation was vulnerable to changes in the weather.

Over the course of next week, dry conditions were expected to continue mid-week with some showers later on in the week.

"Comparing this to Christchurch which is expected to reach 30C this was relatively low which was good for the fires," Marintchenko said.

Rain is anticipated in the southern and central West Coast from a front that will move up the South Island overnight on Sunday/Monday.

But based on the summer pattern in force since early last month, the front is expected to fizzle by the time it reaches Nelson/Tasman.