Tariana Turia - in or out

By JOHN ARMSTRONG

Tariana Turia will be sacked as a junior minister if, as expected, she votes against Labour's revised policy on the foreshore and seabed.

What does she stand to gain or lose from such a decision?

PLUSES OF VOTING AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT

Builds her credibility as someone who puts her principles ahead of political self-preservation.

Shows her as someone who stands up for interests of her Te Tai Hauauru constituents, who oppose the Government's foreshore and seabed policy.

Enables her to speak against other aspects of Government policy relating to Maori once she is sacked.

Serves as necessary headline-generating precursor to her fighting a byelection as an independent should she be thinking of quitting Labour.

MINUSES OF VOTING AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT

Serves as only a symbolic protest, as crossing the floor will not jeopardise the foreshore and seabed legislation because the Prime Minister can rely on votes of United Future and NZ First.

Plays into the Prime Minister's hands, as Mrs Turia's opposition to the legislation makes it easier for the Government to sell the policy to suspicious Pakeha.

Costs Mrs Turia her ministerial posts and say in the Housing, Health and Social Development portfolios vital to helping disadvantaged Maori.

Deprives radical Maori of a voice in inner sanctums of Government.

Splits Labour's Maori caucus, weakening its influence.

Relegates her to the status of powerless backbencher once aura of political martyrdom evaporates.

Throws loyal staff in her Beehive office out of their jobs.