Tamihere's options range from grovelling to walking plank

John Tamihere

The PM has ordered John Tamihere to take extended leave "to give him space to reflect on the issues" while the MP and the Labour leadership determine what future he has following the offence caused by his interview in Investigate magazine. The Herald examines possible options facing Labour and Mr Tamihere 

Axing

Strip Mr Tamihere of his Labour Party candidacy: The extreme option - and an extremely messy one. With rights of appeal under Labour's constitution, "de-selecting" Mr Tamihere would be a bitter, protracted process and a huge distraction to Labour's pre-election "good news" agenda. The MP is already showing signs of circling the wagons in his electorate to fight off the party hierarchy. The party could retaliate by allowing his temporary suspension from the caucus to drag on until closer to the election. But the status of his candidacy has to be settled at some point - and expulsion from the party would likely provoke a public backlash in his favour. That would set him up nicely to run as an independent if forced out of Labour.

Censure

Mr Tamihere censured by Labour Party's ruling council, but sticks with Labour and stands for party again at election: The compromise option - but one yet to get legs. Mr Tamihere would take his punishment and get a clean slate. An official ticking-off would recognise the distress to party members and public offended by his remarks. Modest disciplinary action could annoy those Labour-leaning voters who think he has been wronged, however.

Apology

Mr Tamihere apologises profusely, stays in Parliament and stands for Labour again at the election: The do-nothing option - still a possibility if the fuss is given a chance to die down, but requires Mr Tamihere to make a gesture and end the brinkmanship. Would postpone the question of his long-term future with Labour until after the election. Still leaves him as embarrassment factor beforehand - and presumes there will be no more mischief prior to polling day.

Resignation

Mr Tamihere voluntarily resigns from Parliament and retires from politics, either immediately or at the election: The get-rid-of-him-as-soon-as-possible option. Has been flagged by the Prime Minister as something he should seriously think about. Would remove him as an embarrassment factor. Would allow Labour to select a new candidate in his seat well ahead of the election. Would not affect the Government's majority if he went now as his seat would likely remain vacant until the election. But he will feel he is being pressured to resign - thus making him even more determined to stay put.

Independent

Mr Tamihere quits Labour and stands as an independent at the election: The pistols-at-dawn option - and the worst outcome for Labour. Mr Tamihere might have to delay jumping waka until Parliament rises for the election to stop Labour invoking the law banning MPs from party-hopping. But his jumping would see a former mate become a dangerous enemy. Would set stage for a tough three-way battle in his Tamaki-Makaurau seat between him, Pita Sharples, the Maori Party candidate, and a new Labour candidate. However, losing him would be a serious blow to Labour's campaign to hold on to its other Maori seats.

Byelection

Mr Tamihere quits Labour, resigns from Parliament immediately and tries to force a byelection standing as an independent: The suicide option for Mr Tamihere - and therefore highly unlikely. The Prime Minister would avoid a byelection with consent of other parties as long as she names the election date in return. That would leave Mr Tamihere out of the media limelight and kicking his heels until the election campaign.