The 2014 defence against Wellington, Magpies captain Ash Dixon(headband) for the Bay. His 250th first-class match is in Sunday's defence, also against Wellington. Photo / File
The TAB is ignoring history to go with the Wellington Lions to beat the Hawke's Bay Magpies in Sunday's historic Ranfurly Shield match at McLean Park in Napier.
It's Hawke's Bay's 100th Shield match over the past 115 years, but the national betting agency had challengers Wellington as $1.66 favouritesto win, with holders Hawke's Bay, paying $2.11 for its last Ranfurly Shield match of the season and aiming for the kudos of putting the Log o' Wood away in the trophy cabinet for the summer.
As well as playing for New Zealand's greatest sporting prize, both sides are playing for Mitre 10 Cup semi-final positions. Wellington is fourth in the seven-team top-tier Mitre 10 Cup Premiership with four wins from eight games, and Hawke's Bay second in the next-level Championship table, a record of five wins and three losses.
But Ranfurly Shield history favours the home team, with Hawke's Bay having won six of the 10 Ranfurly Shield matches between the two unions over the past 115 years.
Wellington has won three, and the sides' 12-12-all draw – under the rules being a successful defence by Hawke's Bay – remains one of the most famous of more than 700 Shield matches since Wellington won the first against Auckland in 1904.
Wellington was a year later Hawke's Bay's first opponent in a Ranfurly Shield match, and in 1922 the first union Hawke's Bay beat in a Ranfurly Shield challenge. It was the first of 25 consecutive Hawke's Bay wins, a Ranfurly Shield record that lasted well over 60 years.
Hawke's Bay also has the recent Ranfurly Shield history, with 19 matches in the past eight seasons, including three successful challenges dating back to the 2013 victory over Otago in Dunedin, the Bay's first win in 15 challenges since losing the Shield to Canterbury at the end of the 1966-1969 reign.
In an era where a holder's national championship home matches automatically become Ranfurly Shield defences, Wellington have not had the trophy since 2009, and last challenged in 2014, when beaten 14-6 by Hawke's Bay.
Overall Hawke's Bay has played 62 successful defences in six Ranfurly Shield eras, but Wellington has won the trophy 10 times but won only 50 defences.
Hawke's Bay Rugby Football Union CEO Jay Campbell said today more than 6500 tickets to the game had been sold.
"They've been selling solidly, everyone's wanting to get in early," he said. "The team has been working hard and will be ready to make all the supporters proud."
National weather agency Metservice has a mixed long-range forecast for the weekend, with the Union still hoping for a rain-free afternoon.
As for the TAB forecast that the Shield could be heading back to Wellington afterwards, Campbell was unsurprised and said: "They are the Premiership team and Hawke's Bay are the Championship tea. They are the big brother – but the game is not won or lost at the TAB."
There will be no curtain raiser on Sunday, but the gates open at 1pm and the match, Hawke's Bay's third defence since regaining the shield against Otago on October 4, starts at 2.05pm.
It's also expected to be a chance to celebrate another milestone for Magpies captain Ash Dixon. His 50th game for the Bay was in the 2014 defence against Wellington, his 100th was in the recent successful challenge against Otago, and Sunday will mark his 250th first-class match, in a career that includes 103 matches in the Super Rugby championship.