TAB: How to Win Betting - rugby league

Anthony Gelling celebrates his try; during the Vodafone Warriors v St George Illawarra. Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland. Friday 20 April 2018. Copyright photo: Andrew Cornaga / Photosport

Rugby League is one of the most popular sports in New Zealand and is also one of the most bet on.

With the NRL regarded as one of the tightest competitions in the world, there is plenty of value on offer each and every week.

Here are five betting strategies to follow when betting on the NRL:

Big Home Underdogs Go Bang

Betting big home underdogs is the easiest and simplest way to get an edge on NRL betting markets. Home underdogs getting a start of 8 or more points have covered the start in 63% of games since 2008, while those who bet big home underdogs straight out profit at 27%. Those big home underdogs in the first eight weeks of the season cover at 88%.

Rain Means Under

Bookmakers just don't adjust the line low enough when conditions are wet. Over the last decade, NRL games have seen the 'Total Combined Points' option go under at a rate of 62% when conditions have been wet. The Dragons and Storm both go under at 85% when they play in inclement conditions.

Defence Wins the Premiership

The best indicator of premiership success is defence. Since 2006, only one team not ranked in the Top 3 of points conceded has won a title. Seven of the last 12 premiers have been the top-rated defensive side. North Queensland, who were the fifth best defensive team when they won the title in 2015, were the lowest ranked defensive team to win a premiership since 2005.

Small Interstate Underdogs Are Money

Small interstate underdogs are typically the better team who are factored down because of travel. That is generally a case of overhyping home-field advantage and underrating good teams' ability to travel. Interstate underdogs of 3.5 or less, cover at an excellent 67% while head-to-head punters have profited at 20%.

Key Players Are Critical

Great players always make a difference but key players can and do change betting lines. Every team has a player or two that are required. The Warriors need Issac Luke and Shaun Johnson. North Queensland have long struggled without Johnathan Thurston. South Sydney have Sam Burgess and Greg Inglis but it is Damien Cook who is their key man. When a key player is out, be wary about backing said team.