TAB: How to Win Betting - basketball

Photo: Supplied / TAB

Basketball is an increasingly popular sport in New Zealand and, with that, is now the most bet-on sport at the TAB.

The NBA's lengthy season means there are 1230 regular season game between the months of October and April, providing plenty of opportunity to have a punt. Here's how to successfully do so:

Back the Warriors in Third Quarter Points Start:

It's undeniable; the Golden State Warriors are the best third quarter team in basketball. It's been the case for the past four seasons, in fact, and is often a money-making way to approach betting on basketball. To get an idea of just how good the Warriors have been in third quarters across the 2017-18 NBA season, they outscored their opponents by an average of 4.5 points across those 12 minutes. The Denver Nuggets were the next best team with a +2.1-point differential.

Assess Team Trends:

Some teams in the NBA are good on the road while others are shockingly bad. Some teams in the NBA thrive when installed as favourites, others crumble when they're expected to win. These trends can become consistent and therefore provide opportunities to win bets. For example, the Cleveland Cavaliers covered just 36.6% of their games in the 2017/18 season, a dismal 31.7% of their home games and 31.6% of the games they were favourites across the regular season. Identifying trends like these early in the season can bode for a good few months of basketball betting.

Tracking Schedules

Playing two games in two days, or back-to-backs as they're generally known, is pretty common in the NBA. Teams in the 2017-18 regular season played anywhere between 14 and 17 back-to-backs and in the second game of those back-to-backs, the league average winning percentage was 42.9%. This shows a clear disadvantage in playing a game without rest, though it is an advantage for the punter.

Look at teams' schedules, identify when they are playing games on consecutive days and if you see the value, back their opposition, particularly if the back-to-back team is on the road.